FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar struggles to gain ground amid mixed US data Another mixed set of data out of the US this week – GDP , consumption and the Employment Cost Index – generally pointed to stubbornly high price pressures and slowing growth. The dollar reversed its... 28th April 2023 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP growth muted; Q2 will be worse Although underlying activity growth rebounded in the first quarter, while wage and price inflation remained too high, we expect the second quarter to bring a sharper slowdown across the board. 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily The euro’s rebound against the US dollar looks stretched to us We think the euro’s rebound over the past six months or so has largely run its course and expect the EUR/USD rate to fall back towards parity before year-end. 27th April 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Recession to weigh on housing recovery The housing market will face growing headwinds from tighter credit conditions, slowing income growth and rising unemployment as the economy enters a recession this year. That will offset some of the... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions easing We estimate that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a more moderate 180,000. That would be the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, but... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect “risky” assets to fall later this year We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets during the second half of this year. 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 ) The disappointing 1.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP indicates that the economy had less forward momentum at the start of this year than previously thought. We continue to expect the drag from... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey indicated confidence fell further in the opening months of the year but remains substantially above the lows seen during the height of the pandemic. However, we expect sentiment to... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks fell last week as production and net imports declined. Meanwhile, product demand remains resilient, but we doubt oil demand can weather the mounting economic headwinds much longer. 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Tight credit conditions still pose a threat to risky assets Deposit outflows at First Republic Bank don’t tell us much more than we already knew about the state of the broader US banking sector. But it highlights the evidence of an ongoing credit crunch, and... 26th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates close to peak The Fed looks set to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week, taking the fed funds target range to a peak of 5.00%-5.25%. Although the accompanying statement may leave open the... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 3.2% m/m jump in durable goods orders in March mainly reflects a stronger-than-expected gain in the more volatile commercial aircraft component, with the details suggesting that first-quarter... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2023) Total returns of -1.8% q/q in Q1 reflected a much smaller markdown in values than in Q4. But, looking ahead, we remain convinced that the strains being felt by many investors will drive sharper price... 26th April 2023 · 3 mins read
