US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Mar.) March’s net commercial real estate lending slowed sharply following SVB’s collapse early in the month. Lending against multifamily fell for the first time in 18 months, driven by a reduction in small... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think a recession will weigh heavily on US equities While the recent data on the US economy have been mixed, we expect a recession there before long. We think that will put renewed downward pressure on US equities. 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Western and big six metros set for 25%+ price falls We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western... 14th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation strong, but activity weakening The strength of the March CPI data may be enough to persuade the Fed to squeeze in a final 25bp rate hike at the early-May FOMC meeting. But with mounting evidence that economic growth is weakening... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output in March provides more evidence of a loss of economic momentum going into the second quarter. 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales fell by 1.0% m/m in March, adding to the evidence that the strong start to the year was partly due to the unseasonably mild winter weather. With control group sales only falling by 0.3% m... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed CPI unlikely to drive Treasury yields much higher While we think that today’s US CPI data has increased the probability of another rate hike from the Fed next month, we continue to think that Treasuries will resume their rally later this year while... 12th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Capital values to fall 25% in San Fran, Seattle and D.C. We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an... 12th April 2023 · 13 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) There were some encouraging signs in the March CPI report, including the first evidence that shelter inflation is slowing, but core prices still increased by 0.4% m/m which, on an annualised basis, is... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly MMFs: where liquidity goes to die The surge in interest rates over the past 12 months has encouraged an outflow of deposits from the banking system into money market mutual funds but, unfortunately, those funds are not recycling any... 7th April 2023 · 10 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 236,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March adds to the evidence that the economy’s strong start to the year was partly weather related, with momentum fading again. With the sharp fall in job... 7th April 2023 · 2 mins read
