US Data Response Intern’l Trade (Mar.), Productivity & Lab. Costs (Q1) A rebound in exports drove a sharp narrowing of the international trade deficit to a four-month low of $64.2bn in March, from $70.6bn in February, but the surveys continue to suggest that exports are... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Relative resilience of US stock market is on shaky ground The underperformance of the US stock market seen last year has generally paused so far in 2023, as returns have been propped up by mega-cap “growth” stocks. That may continue over the rest of the year... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s next move likely to be a rate cut The Fed’s new policy statement provides the clearest hint yet that the 25bp rate hike today is likely to be the last. We expect economic weakness and a sharper-than-expected drop back in core... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) The rate of job growth in March remained virtually unchanged from the previous month, signalling resilience across our covered metros despite a slowdown in non-farm payrolls. Within the tech sector... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Final Fed hike unlikely to preclude a further rally in Treasuries The FOMC looks set to shrug off the latest banking sector turmoil and deliver another, probably final, 25bp rate hike today. But we think it will turn to rate cuts soon, and cut further than is... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling uncertainty only likely to grow A bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling alongside modest cuts to government spending still appears to be the most likely way out of the current impasse. It’s possible that moderate Republicans... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The slight rise in mortgage applications in April left them little changed from their recent lows, pointing to further near-term weakness in sales. While we expect affordability will gradually improve... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q1 GDP data Available data for Q1 suggest that the global economy had a better start to the year than previously feared. That seems to have reflected the post zero-COVID rebound in China and its effects, a boost... 3rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fall in job openings points to slower wage growth The decline in job openings to a near two-year low of 9.6 million in March, from a peak of 12.1 million a year earlier, suggests that, even without a rise in the unemployment rate, labour market... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Bank stress continues with First Republic collapse The collapse of First Republic Bank is no big surprise – it had been teetering on the edge since suffering $100bn in deposit withdrawals mostly in March – but it’s a timely reminder that banking... 1st May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr) & Construction Spending (Mar) The trivial rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a still depressed 47.1 in April, from 46.3, contrasts with the more substantial recovery in the alternative S&P Global PMI but echoes the more... 1st May 2023 · 2 mins read
