UK Commercial Property Update Will less generous online returns help retail property? Recent economic difficulties have forced online retail to tighten their returns policies. At face value, this seems good news for retail property as it may shift demand back to stores for certain... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rate hike “skips”: good news for bonds or not? The experience of Australia and Canada in temporary pauses to rate hikes suggests that they may not sustainably lower long-term bond yields unless inflation is clearly under control. 7th June 2023 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Higher for longer There appears to be enough support on the FOMC for a pause at next week’s meeting, but the statement and new projections will make clear that this is not the end of the hiking cycle. We now expect... 7th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and BoE June meetings 1686837600 What will major advanced economy central banks decide at their June meetings, and how will those decisions be messaged?
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (May) Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level in almost 30 years in May, as a renewed rise in mortgage rates weighed on demand. This points to further near-term weakness for home... 7th June 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US markets growing more timid but may still be in for a shock Though US markets are already showing some signs of wariness in light of mixed data releases, we still think slower growth will mean the S&P 500 struggles over the rest of this year. 6th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for equities after the debt ceiling deal The resolution of the debt ceiling debate has cleared a cloud that was hanging over the US equity market, but we think a darker one – a growth slowdown – still lingers. That’s why we doubt the rest of... 6th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls may not stop lower UST yields and equity prices Despite the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print, we still think both the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the rest of this year. 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling deal sealed; Fed to skip June T he debt ceiling standoff ended not with a bang but a whimper – as the bill easily passed the House and Senate with comfortable majorities. Although the prospect of a debt ceiling deal briefly... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mega-cap outperformance: lessons from history In a recent Global Markets Update, we analysed the remarkably narrow rally in the S&P 500 so far in 2023. We concluded that recent history supported our forecast that the rally will run out of steam... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The bigger-than-expected 339,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May will dominate the headlines, but the employment report was not all positive – with a big drop in the household survey... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Spring 2023: Consensus forecasts under-estimate the pain to come It comes as no surprise to see a sharp downgrade to consensus forecasts given the combined impact of the regional banking crisis and growing office sector distress. But despite those downgrades, our... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil prices surged on the back of this week’s report, which managed to successfully tear investors’ attention away from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. In isolation, there was little to... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
