Europe Commercial Property Update Pandemic impacts on physical office occupancy The pandemic-induced shift towards homeworking caused a sharp fall in physical office occupancy rates. They have since recovered significantly but remain below pre-pandemic levels. And while lower... 6th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: Office sector Armageddon – Who gets hit hardest? 1690383600 The meltdown in CRE that’s dominating headlines is a story centred on the office sector.
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for EM & US bonds Although we expect emerging market (EM) policy rates to fall vis-a-vis the US this year, we don’t expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to outperform US Treasuries until global growth picks up over... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equity valuations may eventually get more stretched The valuations of equities are, in general, still a long way from being unprecedently high compared to those of government bonds. 5th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Lumber price to ease back on demand weakness After fluctuating between $500 and $600 per 1,000 board feet for most of this year, we expect the US lumber price to fall from around $520 today to $475 by the end of the year due to weaker demand... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate bond spreads may rise again Corporate credit spreads have fallen back in the US over the past couple of weeks, while they have risen in the euro-zone and the UK. However, given our pessimistic view of the US economy, we suspect... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may become a headwind for US equities US stock markets’ gains in recent months, both in absolute terms and relative to their European peers, owe a lot to their rising valuations. But equities in the US are now arguably quite highly valued... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.0 in June, from 46.9, is difficult to square with claims from some commentators that economic growth is rebounding and provides further reason to... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily 2023: A year of two halves? “Risky” assets are clearly leading “safe” assets as we approach the halfway point of the year. But with recessions looming, we expect souring risk appetite to turn the game on its head in the second... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumption and core inflation losing momentum The apparent weakness of consumption growth and slowdown in core inflation in the second quarter leave us a bit more confident in our view that the Fed’s next rate hike will prove to be the last. 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (May) The May income & spending data appear to confirm that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, while also providing encouraging signs that core inflation is gradually easing. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Renewed slowdown in payroll growth We think employment growth remained fairly resilient in June and have pencilled in a 250,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. But that would still be a sharp slowdown from May’s surge. 29th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? 1688652000 Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond.
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
