US Commercial Property Update Trip Notes – NY and Chicago client Q&A Here are answers to some of the key questions that kept coming up during meetings with clients last week in New York and Chicago, and around my presentation to the NCREIF summer conference in Chicago. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The further slump in industrial production in June illustrates that some parts of the economy are already struggling and, as global manufacturing demand continues to soften, we expect further weakness... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (June) Despite the modest 0.2% m/m rise in headline retail sales in June, the bigger 0.6% m/m gain in underlying control group sales is a bit more encouraging, although second-quarter consumption growth... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 17th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising prime-age participation driven by women The resurgence in female prime-age participation to a record high is helping to support labour force growth, but the recent rapid pace of improvement is likely to fade soon. 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack What does the new normal mean for real estate? Slides presented by our Deputy Chief Property Economist, Kiran Raichura, at the Summer NCREIF Conference, outlining our view on what the "new normal" will mean for real estate over the rest of this... 17th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (June) 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflationary pressures melting away The news that core CPI increased by a muted 0.16% m/m in June, which is less than 2% in annualised terms, has raised hopes that the Fed’s planned rate hike this month will be the last in this cycle... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update When & why the stock market has ridden out a recession The stock market in the US has rarely rallied in recessions that have taken place there since the mid-1850s. Our forecast is that it will take a knock amid a recession in H2 2023 before powering ahead... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul.) The sharp rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 72.6 in early July, from 64.4, leaves it close to a two-year high. That said, it remains fairly weak by historic standards, and... 14th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update How markets might fare as US disinflation continues June’s soft US CPI print seems to have given investors renewed hope that inflation could fall back to normal levels without the economy slowing too much, if at all. We continue to think that the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are sales being depressed by mortgage rate lock-in? Surging mortgage rates are undoubtedly dissuading households from moving due to the cost of giving up low fixed rate mortgages, weighing on home sales and inventory. But a similar decrease in sales in... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from “excess” savings now exhausted The resilience of consumption over the past year is partly because households have been willing to save less of their income than before the pandemic, which lends some support to the idea that... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Why don’t TIPS yields matter anymore? Not so long ago, a higher 10-year TIPS yield almost invariably meant an underperformance of US “growth” stocks vis-à-vis their “value” peers, a lower gold price, and a stronger dollar. That’s changed... 13th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Different inflation pictures, different bond market outcomes? Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
