US Economics Update Fed pauses, but eyes 50bp in additional rate hikes As expected, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged at between 5.00% and 5.25% today, but it made clear in the accompanying statement that pause was only to allow officials to “assess additional... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The fed funds rate may go lower than investors think Investors may be right about the near-term path of the fed funds rate, but we suspect they’re underestimating how far it will fall; that’s one reason we think long-dated Treasuries will rally. 14th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Sticky UK inflation is unlikely to keep Gilt yields higher forever The 10-year Gilt yield has continued to march higher on the back of recent data releases, outpacing the equivalent Treasury yield and putting upward pressure on the pound against the greenback. But we... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation fell to a more than two-year low of 4.0% in May, thanks to favourable base effects and another sharp drop back in energy prices last month but, with core price inflation still... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (May) While bank net lending to commercial real estate (CRE) turned positive again in May, growing signs of distress for existing loans point to further weakness ahead. The $13.7bn growth in loans secured... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the S&P 500’s latest bull market We doubt the stock market rally will extend much further over the rest of this year. 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Central bank surprises work against dollar ahead of FOMC The US dollar looks poised to end another week down a touch – the DXY index’s first consecutive weekly fall since April. That probably reflects yield gaps vis-à-vis most other developed markets (DMs)... 9th June 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Pause in house price declines to prove temporary The seven-month run of house price declines recently ground to a halt, with the Case-Shiller index showing an increase in prices in both February and March. This was partly driven by the temporary... 9th June 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal higher rates despite soft activity data We expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting but, in what could be characterised as a “hawkish skip”, to signal via forward guidance (updated SEP forecasts and... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Yield curve positioning after the final Fed hike Although we think that the Fed is set to end its tightening cycle in July, we aren’t convinced that 10-year Treasuries will outperform 2-year Treasuries in the way that they have after recent Fed... 9th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is the worst really nearly over for US equity office REITs? Although a lot of bad news now appears to be priced into US equity office REITS, the sector still faces significant challenges. This suggests to us that a material improvement in its fortunes is not... 8th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US small caps may have made a false start After sitting out most of this year’s stock market rally, US small caps have shown signs of life this week. We think they might falter in the near term, but see reasons to be a bit more upbeat on... 8th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Top-ranked warehouse markets dominated by Sunbelt Our updated industrial metros analysis, which now incorporates the current vacancy rate, continues to point to Memphis as having the strongest prospects for rent growth over a three-year horizon... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
