Asset Allocation Update Equity market winners in the age of AI Given our view that a big stock market rally fuelled by enthusiasm about AI is on the way, we expect equities in some IT and industrials subsectors to outperform, which would favour the US market. 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in June won’t stop the Fed from hiking rates again later this month, but it supports our view that the downward trend in core inflation is set to... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Is the AI-fuelled stock market rally already over? Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) seems to have waned a bit recently, and it may continue to do so if, as we expect, growth struggles later this year. But we think that it will resume... 11th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Clear split between weak west and strong south The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist... 11th July 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economic Outlook Odds still favour a mild recession We still think a mild recession over the coming quarters is more likely than not. As the economy weakens and the downward trend in core inflation gathers pace, we think interest rates will eventually... 11th July 2023 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Two intriguing developments within the latest rout in bonds There were two intriguing developments in bond markets last week, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4% to its highest level since March. The first was a similar-sized increase in the 10-year... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Limited scope for immigration to ease labour shortages The surge in immigration and improvement in labour supply has helped ease wage growth moderately. But, with limited scope for a further rapid recovery in the labour force, we think a sustained period... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Labour market data send markets there and back again Signs the US labour market is beginning to loosen support our view that bond yields and equities could fall further, while the greenback could rally. 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilience points to July rate hike The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% this week, as markets interpreted the minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting as hawkish and reacted to signs that, although labour market conditions may... 7th July 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25 Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our... 7th July 2023 · 12 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June was the weakest gain since December 2020 and suggests labour market conditions are finally beginning to ease more markedly. That said, it is unlikely to... 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market remains resilient The fall in job openings in May suggests that labour shortages continue to ease, although the rebound in the job quits rate implies that wage growth is set to slow only gradually. 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Comparing the Fed’s new FCI to our own The Fed’s new FCI does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures. But our own FCI has had a better record at capturing turning points in real... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) A slight decline in mortgage rates allowed mortgage applications for home purchase to recover from the previous month’s lows in June. That said, applications remain below the average seen so far this... 6th July 2023 · 1 min read
