Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (May.) Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over 1... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales increased for the third consecutive month in May, rising by a punchy 12.2% m/m to reach 763,000 annualised, the highest level since February 2022. This leaves them firmly above pre... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.) House prices rose in April by the fastest pace in close to a year, reflecting constraints to supply as high mortgage rates have discouraged existing homeowners from moving. Although prices have shown... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods (May) The 1.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in May was stronger than we had expected, even accounting for a big rise in the volatile commercial aircraft component. But the wider evidence still suggests... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Resilience giving way to recession Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several... 27th June 2023 · 46 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Weak EZ PMIs point to lower euro and bond yields Lower-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June support our view that economic activity will disappoint, which we think will push the euro and government bond yields down by the end of 2023. 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Growth still weakening despite housing rebound The jump in housing starts in May appeared to confirm that the sector is enjoying a revival of fortune as mortgage rates have eased slightly. Nevertheless, the experience of the mild recession of 2001... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) Easing financial conditions, improving consumer sentiment and the stabilisation in housing suggest that the risks of an imminent recession have eased slightly. Nonetheless, our tracking models still... 22nd June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office values unlikely to regain their peaks even by 2040 The reduction in office demand due to remote work will cause a hit to net operating incomes on a par with, or worse than, that experienced by malls over the last six years. And in line with the... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (May.) As expected, existing home sales remained relatively unchanged in May, rising by +0.2% m/m to 4,300,000 annualised. Despite this marginal rise, a decline in mortgage applications for home purchase in... 22nd June 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update High Treasury volatility won’t prevent yields from falling Treasury volatility has fallen over recent weeks but remains high by historical standards, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it remained so over the rest of 2023 even after the Fed has concluded its... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Housing Monthly Dashboard Our new Dashboard allows clients to track the key housing market indicators that we follow in real time. This Update outlines what has driven recent developments in these indicators, and our view for... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Little sign of AI euphoria in corporate credit While the AI revolution has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for US equities today, we don’t think it changes the outlook for US corporate credit spreads much. We think spreads still look too... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update European equities: no AI, no party? Since bottoming out late last year, European and US equities have fared comparably in local-currency terms, and European stocks have even outperformed in dollar terms. Looking ahead, however, we think... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
