In response to Donald Trump’s election win and the likelihood that his policies will be inflationary, we have revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target range in 2025 by 50bp, to between 3.50% and 3.75%. There are, if anything, still some …
18th November 2024
The recent downturn in US commercial property has piqued investor interest in alternatives as they look to diversify. With an aging population, senior housing has a clear long run structural demand driver pointing to further growth in the sector. Our …
We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be little changed. So the effect of FX moves on growth and …
US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there could be social and fiscal costs, as well as lower …
I was visiting clients in the US last week, where the mood felt very different from Trump’s first election victory in 2016 (and when, incidentally, I was living and working in New York). Then, the overriding mood was one of shock. Today, there is less …
Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q3 and we think the boost from loose fiscal policy will support growth in the coming quarters and help offset a slowdown in the tourism sector. The 1.2% q/q rise in Q3 GDP, following the 0.8% increase in Q2, was …
A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low ever since, but economic forces point to a rebound. …
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and …
15th November 2024
The US dollar continues to build on its post-election rally, with the DXY index now at its highest level in more than a year. While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term given the extent and speed of the greenback’s rally since late …
Rand hit by Trump trade, falling commodity prices The recent weakness of the South African rand is a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but sharp falls in some of South Africa key commodity exports also appear to have played a role. We expect the currency to …
Road to 2% inflation a bumpy one The hotter-than-expected October price data serve as a reminder that the Fed’s fight against inflation is not over. Based on the CPI, PPI and import price data, we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price …
The US election outcome means that Canada and the US will not be trading friendship bracelets anytime soon and leaves the risks to inflation more finely balanced, but we still think that growth concerns will prompt the Bank of C anada to cut the policy …
US President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations announced over the past week give us a guide to how his policies will affect Latin America. The fact many of his choices, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security secretary) and Thomas Homan (“border …
European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back meaningfully once the wave of LNG supply arrives, with a good …
Yet another week of disappointing activity data … The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to concerns about the health of the region’s economies. Poland’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q , while GDP …
Today’s GDP release, which confirmed that the economy has barely grown at all since March, is clearly a blow for the government given its pledge to secure the “highest sustained growth in the G7”. This means that while the UK has now surpassed Japan and …
Temporary disruptions weigh on production again The fall in manufacturing output in October was driven mainly by temporary disruptions which should soon reverse. Excluding these disruptions, industrial production would have remained unchanged, suggesting …
New currency forecast and policy implications We have finalised our financial market forecasts following Donald Trump’s election victory. In short, we think US Treasury yields will remain elevated over the coming year (we previously anticipated falls) …
Manufacturing sales weak, but tentative signs of a recovery Despite the 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September, the data still appear consistent with the flash estimate that GDP rose by 0.3% that month. Although manufacturing has …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Underlying sales growth slowing to a more sustainable pace While October’s retail sales data showed underlying weakness and were accompanied by sizable revisions to previous …
Déjà vu for industrial metals While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. For context, Chart 1 shows the US’s bilateral …
The focus this week has continued to be on the consequences of the US election results for Europe. So while a lot remains unclear at this stage, it is worth reiterating what we think are the main implications. First, it seems likely that the US will …
We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds with plans to impose additional tariffs. China’s …
Inflation jump to prompt 100bp hike from CBN this month Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up for a second consecutive month, to 33.9% y/y in October, largely due to the impact of rising petrol prices. The CBN now appears to have little choice but …
We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down our already below-consensus GDP growth forecasts any …
Powerhouse state takes to the polls The dust is settling on the US election and we’ve been considering the implications for different economies and asset classes; clients can see all of our work on this dedicated webpage . For India Watchers, the action …
Swiss economy slows sharply, but will pick up in the coming quarters Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further …
What next after the fiscal flop? Investors were not impressed by the fiscal measures announced last Friday, at least judging by the performance of Chinese equities – the Hang Seng index has fallen 6.1% so far this week. This disappointment is …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Q3 GDP growth muted, Q4 will be better The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but …
Economy set to cool further The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth in Malaysia remained above trend again. Looking ahead we think GDP growth will drop back close to trend if, as we expect, a jump in inflation driven by the removal of food and …
Economy regains momentum as consumers step up China’s economy improved further at the start of Q4, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. We think faster fiscal spending will support a continued cyclical pickup in activity overing the coming …
Consumption continuing to surge For the first time since the market turmoil in August, the financial markets consider it more likely than not that the Bank of Japan will hike rates by another 25bp at its December meeting. One reason is that markets now …
RBA to stay vigilant for a bit longer At her post-meeting press conference last week, RBA Governor Bullock cited the tightness of the Australian labour market as a key reason why the Board remains reluctant to shift to an easing bias. Those remarks seem …
GDP growth set to remain sluggish The economy lost momentum in the third quarter and we think that GDP growth will remain around trend over the coming quarters. According to today’s preliminary estimate, GDP growth slowed from a downward-revised 0.5% q/q …
Banxico cuts, scope for further easing rests on the peso Mexico’s central bank delivered another 25bp interest rate cut at today’s meeting, to 10.25%, and it left the door open to further easing over the coming months, although a lot will depend on moves …
14th November 2024
The US dollar has rallied sharply since the US election last week – as we had expected it would in the event of a Trump win. Based on our assessment of the new policy outlook in the US, we think the greenback will make further gains over the next year as …
We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated ones. As had been widely expected prior to the election, …
It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent events – the election of Donald Trump and the recent UK …
The latest data have shown some improvement in global activity with the US holding up well, the euro-zone exceeding weak expectations and China starting to respond to policy support. However, forward-looking indicators point to a renewed slowdown in world …
Stronger inflation rules out rate cut before end-24 The third successive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate has all but quashed hopes that the central bank will cut interest rates before the end of this year. But, as we have long argued, a sharp …
President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers and exporters of CO 2 emissions is likely to shrink …
PPI points to another above-target-consistent rise in core PCE The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s …
The UK is not as exposed to US import tariffs as many other economies and we suspect any resulting reduction in UK GDP would be very small. That said, the car and pharmaceutical sectors are the most vulnerable areas of the UK economy. And we don’t think …
We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it remains well above 10-year US OIS/Treasury and 10-year …
While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing our home sales forecast to show a shallower and later …
Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the economic implications for Russia and Ukraine, for Europe …
Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates will fall by more than most expect and that house price …
An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty. The president-elect’s campaign pledges on everything from Iran and Israel to climate policy to household energy bills appear to raise …
