House prices may soon start to fall again House price growth kept slowing in November and, with affordability the most stretched since the early 1990s, that slowdown has further to run. In seasonally-adjusted terms, house prices across Australia’s eight …
30th November 2023
China steel output should fall some more The monthly fall in China’s steel production should continue over the next two months, but the outlook is a little brighter in 2024. Elsewhere, production rose in October, and India’s production in particular …
22nd November 2023
Supply stays strong Global aluminium production rose in October and set a monthly record. This is unlikely to be broken over the next few months as China’s output should fall as smelters curb output over winter. According to the International Aluminium …
20th November 2023
House price rally will slow in earnest With house prices now at a record high and affordability constraints becoming increasingly binding, Australia’s housing rebound will soon run out of steam. In seasonally-adjusted terms, house prices across …
1st November 2023
Further falls in global steel supply are likely Monthly global steel output in September fell in year-on-year terms for the first time in 2023, in large part due to a contraction in China’s production. With demand set to remain weak and low profitability …
24th October 2023
Robust supply growth, but it is mostly a China story After reaching a record high in August, global aluminium production eased back in September but remained strong. Given that demand growth is relatively subdued, the increase in global supply may only …
20th October 2023
House price gains will slow further over coming months The housing rebound will continue to lose momentum over coming months as affordability is increasingly stretched, but policy easing by the RBA should provide a renewed boost to prices next year. …
2nd October 2023
Global steel production growth continues to struggle The slowdown in global steel production in August is consistent with our long-held view that slowing demand will weigh on production in the second half of this year. Weakening demand stems from slowing …
25th September 2023
A healthier picture of aluminium supply An increase in year-on-year production growth, coupled with upward revisions to the back data, means that global aluminium supply is much stronger than previously thought. Production reached a record high in August …
20th September 2023
Housing recovery remains in high gear Australian house prices rose at a blistering pace in August, as demand continued to outstrip supply. Although the property market is likely to remain tight in the near term, we think house price growth will moderate …
1st September 2023
Global steel production continues to stagnate Global steel production will probably continue to edge lower in the next few months, following the latest month-on-month decline revealed by the WSA today. Crucially, we think that steel demand will soften as …
22nd August 2023
Global aluminium supply slides into contraction Global aluminium production growth slowed for the seventh consecutive month and dipped into contractionary territory in July on the back of weakness in China. We think production growth will stagnate as …
21st August 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and a chart of the key data. Softer Gulf PMIs, but non-oil activity holding up well July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in …
3rd August 2023
Housing rebound continues unabated Australia’s house-price rebound went full steam ahead in July. At the margin, that should strengthen the case for the RBA to lift its cash rate by a further 25bp at its meeting later today. Nonetheless, with resurgent …
1st August 2023
This webpage has been updated with an additional chart and table of key figures. Kingdom enters a recession on back of oil production cuts Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output …
31st July 2023
Global growth in steel output stagnating Global steel production growth picked up in June, albeit only to a pace consistent with stagnant growth. With the rise in output in China on shaky ground and weak demand beginning to weigh on supply in other …
25th July 2023
Aluminium production remains strong but growth is softening Global aluminium production growth eased again in June, in a sign that smelters are responding to weak demand growth. We think that production growth will remain subdued over the next few months …
20th July 2023
Australia’s house-price rebound showed no signs of slowing in June. However, with the RBA set to swing its rate hammer a few more times, we’re sticking with our view that the upturn will prove fleeting. House prices rose by 1.1% m/m in seasonally-adjusted …
3rd July 2023
This page was first published on Friday 30th June, covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Monday 3rd July, and Caixin services and composite PMI on Wednesday 5th July. Growth now below pre-pandemic levels This …
30th June 2023
Steel mills slamming the brakes on production Global steel production fell sharply in y/y terms in May. Against the backdrop of subdued demand and stringent supply caps in China, the supply outlook over the next few months appears bleak. According to the …
21st June 2023
Aluminium production growth could start to pick up soon If reports of a forthcoming easing of output restrictions in Yunnan province are accurate, then the ongoing slowdown in China’s aluminium production growth could come to an end soon. Much will also …
20th June 2023
Gains in sales & output both muted The 0.3% m/m increase in retail sales included a 1.4% m/m gain in the value of motor vehicle sales, which is very hard to square with the 6.5% m/m decline in light vehicle unit sales already reported by manufacturers. …
15th June 2023
Sales benefitting from easing supply shortages The resilience of manufacturing sales suggests easing supply shortages are still supporting activity, with the transport sector reaping much of the benefits. Nevertheless, the surveys point to a weaker …
Inflation edges up and set to soar in June Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to a fresh 17-year high of 22.4% y/y and the recent removal of fuel subsidies alongside yesterday’s devaluation of the naira mean that it is likely to surge to more than 30% …
Tight labour market will prompt more monetary tightening With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, we’re happy with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate all the way to 4.85% by September. The 75,900 rise in …
Stagnant exports a prelude of downturn to come The trade deficit narrowed for an eighth consecutive month in May as both import prices and volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders rebounded in April, but that still points to a fall in capital …
Recession will drive RBNZ to cut rates by Q4 The contraction in Q1 GDP means that a recession is now well under way in New Zealand. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBNZ will shift gears and start cutting rates before year-end. The …
After dodging recession, economy made decent start to Q2 April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, …
14th June 2023
Output will weaken despite increase in April The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this year as …
Resurgence in activity unlikely to last Note: We’ll be discussing the UK’s economic, housing market and policy outlook in light of the BoE’s June rate decision in an online briefing on 22nd June at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST . Register now . The 0.2% m/m rise in …
Inflation coming down but Riksbank to hike by 25bp Headline inflation fell back into single digit territory in May, but the underlying rate came down a bit less than anticipated. This suggests there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riksbank will …
Core inflation still uncomfortably high Headline CPI inflation fell to a more than two-year low of 4.0% in May, thanks to favourable base effects and another sharp drop back in energy prices last month but, with core price inflation still as high as …
13th June 2023
Borrowing curbed in response to rising interest rates With mortgage rates surging, the number of loans issued to buy a home dropped sharply in Q1, with Buy-to-Let (BTL) lending seeing the most severe drop. Those that did press ahead with a home purchase …
Reacceleration in wage growth supports the case for further rate hikes Note: We’ll be discussing the Fed and ECB June decisions and previewing the Bank of England's upcoming meeting in a briefing at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST on 15 th June. Register here . The …
Activity growing at a more subdued pace The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Turkey for April suggest that GDP growth is likely to have remained subdued this quarter following the Q1 slowdown. A shift towards economic orthodoxy – …
Headline inflation to remain anchored within the RBI’s 2-6% target range Headline consumer price inflation fell to a 25-month low in May and is likely to remain within the RBI’s 2-6% target range for the foreseeable future. That means the tightening cycle …
12th June 2023
Inflation ticks up as central bank sounds hawkish Russian inflation picked up slightly to 2.5% y/y in May and we think it will rise above the central bank’s 4% target in the coming months. Against a backdrop of large upside inflation risks and the hawkish …
9th June 2023
Labour market starting to loosen The fall in employment and the increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in May will probably not prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates again at its July meeting, but the moves reinforce our view that the …
Inflation surprise strengthens case for more Norges Bank tightening Following May’s stronger-than-expected inflation data, a rate hike by the Norges Bank later this month looks nailed on. A 25bp move still seems most likely, but the risks are skewed …
Euro-zone in recession, outlook poor News that GDP contracted in Q1 after all means that the euro-zone has already fallen into a technical recession. Given that the impact of policy tightening is yet to fully feed through, we suspect that the economy will …
8th June 2023
Net trade to boost GDP in Q2 The narrowing of the trade surplus in April was driven in large part by a deterioration in the terms of trade. We think net exports will actually provide a modest boost to GDP growth this quarter. The decline in the trade …
Exports still benefitting from easing support shortages Easing supply shortages supported strong export growth in April but, with the surveys of export orders still very weak, that strength is likely to fade soon. Canada’s goods trade surplus widened from …
7th June 2023
Weak demand to weigh on industry The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run its course. And …
RBA could be forced to keep hiking into economic downturn Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace. …
Retail sales continue to struggle Household consumption seems to have been subdued at the start of the second quarter as retail sales were unchanged in April. And continued low levels of household confidence suggest that consumption will decline in the …
6th June 2023
Renewed strength in regular pay growth won’t last Wage growth fell in April due to a fall in overtime pay and mostly stagnant bonus payments, while regular pay growth rebounded. But labour market conditions should loosen in the second half on account of a …
Inflation closing in on 2% Another sharp fall in headline and core inflation in May brought Switzerland within touching distance of the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price stability. But with recent comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan sounding quite …
5th June 2023
Energy drags headline inflation lower The fall in Turkish inflation to 39.6% y/y in May was largely driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, while core inflation increased . Bringing inflation down sustainably will require a major policy tightening and …
Despite employment strength, unemployment up and wage growth down The bigger-than-expected 339,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May will dominate the headlines, but the employment report was not all positive – with a big drop in the …
2nd June 2023
US product demand remains resilient Oil prices surged on the back of this week’s report, which managed to successfully tear investors’ attention away from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. In isolation, there was little to suggest this was a …
1st June 2023
