This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Underlying sales growth slowing to a more sustainable pace While October’s retail sales data showed underlying weakness and were accompanied by sizable revisions to previous …
15th November 2024
The focus this week has continued to be on the consequences of the US election results for Europe. So while a lot remains unclear at this stage, it is worth reiterating what we think are the main implications. First, it seems likely that the US will …
We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds with plans to impose additional tariffs. China’s …
Inflation jump to prompt 100bp hike from CBN this month Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up for a second consecutive month, to 33.9% y/y in October, largely due to the impact of rising petrol prices. The CBN now appears to have little choice but …
We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down our already below-consensus GDP growth forecasts any …
Powerhouse state takes to the polls The dust is settling on the US election and we’ve been considering the implications for different economies and asset classes; clients can see all of our work on this dedicated webpage . For India Watchers, the action …
Swiss economy slows sharply, but will pick up in the coming quarters Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further …
What next after the fiscal flop? Investors were not impressed by the fiscal measures announced last Friday, at least judging by the performance of Chinese equities – the Hang Seng index has fallen 6.1% so far this week. This disappointment is …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Q3 GDP growth muted, Q4 will be better The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but …
Economy set to cool further The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth in Malaysia remained above trend again. Looking ahead we think GDP growth will drop back close to trend if, as we expect, a jump in inflation driven by the removal of food and …
Economy regains momentum as consumers step up China’s economy improved further at the start of Q4, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. We think faster fiscal spending will support a continued cyclical pickup in activity overing the coming …
Consumption continuing to surge For the first time since the market turmoil in August, the financial markets consider it more likely than not that the Bank of Japan will hike rates by another 25bp at its December meeting. One reason is that markets now …
RBA to stay vigilant for a bit longer At her post-meeting press conference last week, RBA Governor Bullock cited the tightness of the Australian labour market as a key reason why the Board remains reluctant to shift to an easing bias. Those remarks seem …
GDP growth set to remain sluggish The economy lost momentum in the third quarter and we think that GDP growth will remain around trend over the coming quarters. According to today’s preliminary estimate, GDP growth slowed from a downward-revised 0.5% q/q …
14th November 2024
Banxico cuts, scope for further easing rests on the peso Mexico’s central bank delivered another 25bp interest rate cut at today’s meeting, to 10.25%, and it left the door open to further easing over the coming months, although a lot will depend on moves …
The US dollar has rallied sharply since the US election last week – as we had expected it would in the event of a Trump win. Based on our assessment of the new policy outlook in the US, we think the greenback will make further gains over the next year as …
We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated ones. As had been widely expected prior to the election, …
It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent events – the election of Donald Trump and the recent UK …
The latest data have shown some improvement in global activity with the US holding up well, the euro-zone exceeding weak expectations and China starting to respond to policy support. However, forward-looking indicators point to a renewed slowdown in world …
Stronger inflation rules out rate cut before end-24 The third successive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate has all but quashed hopes that the central bank will cut interest rates before the end of this year. But, as we have long argued, a sharp …
PPI points to another above-target-consistent rise in core PCE The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s …
President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers and exporters of CO 2 emissions is likely to shrink …
We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it remains well above 10-year US OIS/Treasury and 10-year …
The UK is not as exposed to US import tariffs as many other economies and we suspect any resulting reduction in UK GDP would be very small. That said, the car and pharmaceutical sectors are the most vulnerable areas of the UK economy. And we don’t think …
While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing our home sales forecast to show a shallower and later …
Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the economic implications for Russia and Ukraine, for Europe …
Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates will fall by more than most expect and that house price …
An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty. The president-elect’s campaign pledges on everything from Iran and Israel to climate policy to household energy bills appear to raise …
We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal concerns may keep yields high by past standards and we …
The strength of prime office rent growth in Europe in recent years has surprised forecasters, however there is broad agreement that rental growth will slow next year. We share that view, but are less pessimistic than most about the extent of the slowdown. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Faster GDP growth looks temporary The pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q3 is unlikely to be sustained. Timelier business and consumer surveys suggest that growth …
Poland’s economy stumbles in Q3 The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about underlying weakness in the …
Inflation rises at fastest pace in over a year This response has been updated with additional analysis since first published Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate accelerated from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.9% y/y in October, a fourth consecutive rise …
Improvement in housing market sentiment may be overdone October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Resilient labour market heightens risk that policy easing will be delayed With the labour market still on sturdy ground, there is a growing risk to our forecast that the RBA will …
13th November 2024
This dashboard shows our latest UK commercial property forecasts. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or table. If you would like …
While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still. Today’s inflation release showed that US CPI for October …
Growth slowing, but inflation pressures still strong The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum in growth over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary …
Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation. During this presentation, Paul addresses key issues around Trump's second term, including: The …
If Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose a high sector-specific tariff on European cars, German firms could suffer a big reduction in exports, deepening the crisis in the sector and adding another headwind to economic growth. That would be …
CPI points to target-consistent gain in core PCE The third consecutive 0.3% m/m gain in the core CPI in October is somewhat concerning, with our preliminary calculations pointing to another above-target-consistent 0.22 m/m gain in core PCE prices, …
We argued 18 months ago that the sharp rise in unsecured lending left India’s financial sector at risk of rising defaults, and anecdotal evidence suggests that this risk is materialising. The chances of a full-blown banking crisis in India are low, but a …
Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic Party for the People. If the DPP insists on its radical …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Slowdown in wage growth has further to run Wage growth eased markedly in Q3, as workers in the awards system received much smaller pay hikes than last year. Although wage growth …
It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift in the pro-Israel/anti-Iran stance that broadens the …
12th November 2024
We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. Although the S&P 500 was struggling today at the time of writing, it had been …
The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by increased government expenditure. Similarly, while the …
The deterioration in Colombia’s public finances has spooked investors and, with the government showing no clear willingness to rein in spending, Colombian financial assets are likely to remain under pressure. One implication is that the fiscal situation …
