A severe El Niño event could be the harbinger of weak monsoon rains in India. This wouldn’t have as big an economic impact as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it would harm employment and energy production. What’s more, it would push up …
10th July 2023
The UK CPI report for June will provide fresh evidence of whether the economy has a persistent inflation problem – and whether the Bank of England will need to do more in response. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory and …
The recent US experience seems to suggest that the household saving rate could fall further as Canadians draw down the savings they built up during the pandemic, supporting consumption. A closer look suggests that the saving rate overstates the health of …
The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, but its communications acknowledged the risk of having to hike rates again in the coming months if inflation data warrant it. We think they will and we expect the central bank to …
After a lacklustre 2022, the Brussels prime office market has had a brighter start to 2023, as rent growth accelerated while it slowed elsewhere in the euro-zone. But with a cooling jobs market set to weigh on net absorption and tight supply due to give …
There are circumstances in which the Bundesbank’s losses over the next few years could require it to be recapitalised by the German government. However, we think these are unlikely to occur and the Bundesbank will be able to “carry forward” losses and …
Towards the end of June, we raised our two-year forecasts for the S&P 500, advising clients that we now expect the benchmark to rise by around 50% between now and the end of 2025. It’s a bullish call – and one that takes into account a US recession later …
Further pressure on the CBE as inflation accelerates to an all-time high This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Egypt’s inflation rate rose from 32.7% y/y in May to a record high of 35.7% y/y in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Core inflation again stronger than expected In June, Norway’s inflation data were much stronger than expected for the second month running. While the Norges Bank has signalled a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Price pressures set to remain subdued this year Producer price deflation deepened further last month to its lowest in more than seven years, and consumer price inflation dropped …
We expect the RBA to lift rates to 4.85% by November, while the RBNZ's tightening cycle is likely already over with its cash rate now at 5.50%. With house prices now 18% below their January 2022 peak, we think New Zealand's housing downturn has run its …
Signs the US labour market is beginning to loosen support our view that bond yields and equities could fall further, while the greenback could rally. Labour market data out of the US over the past two days has sent mixed messages : yesterday, the ADP …
7th July 2023
While the US dollar has dropped back in the wake of today’s non-farm payrolls report, continuing its recent struggles, two other trends in currency markets are showing some signs of exhaustion. Most notably, the Chinese authorities have stepped up their …
Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil market deficit just got deeper Oil prices were among the largest …
Survey data point to decent end to Q2 The batch of survey data for June from Brazil and Mexico released this week suggest that both economies gathered momentum at the end of Q2. In Brazil, having fallen back in May, the FGV confidence surveys generally …
The data this week showed big improvements in supply in both the labour and housing markets, which should give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI inflation will continue to decline. We still expect the Bank to raise interest rates by 25bp next week to …
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% this week, as markets interpreted the minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting as hawkish and reacted to signs that, although labour market conditions may be easing, wage growth remains too high. Most …
The El Niño weather pattern is on its way and threatens to hit agricultural production across much of Africa over the coming months, curtailing GDP growth, pushing up inflation and dealing a fresh blow to fragile balance of payments positions. There’s …
Overview – Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our projections for demand implying vacancy rises …
We've just published our Q3 Outlook reports for the global economy and markets. They tell a fairly grim near-term story of inflation, recession and weaker equities prices. But there's nuance within that narrative, including emerging markets outperformance …
We still think the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds in Canada, Australia and New Zealand will fall by the end of this year, but no longer expect them to do so by much more than the yields of bonds elsewhere. Canada, Australia and New Zealand have led …
Market-implied interest rate expectations have continued to rise this week as investors have concluded that in order to squeeze high inflation out of the system, the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates further, from 5.00% now to a peak of …
Russian ruble depreciation gathering pace The depreciation of the Russian ruble gathered pace this week amid a continued squeeze on Russia’s trade surplus and growing capital outflows. A weaker currency will support the fiscal position, but at the same …
We think the euro-zone economy will remain in recession over the coming quarters, and the subsequent recovery will be sluggish due to the lagged impact of monetary policy tightening as well as tight fiscal policy. Headline euro-zone inflation will …
China has stepped up its support of the renminbi and Japan appears to be edging closer to direct intervention to prop up the yen. While pressure from higher US interest rates may well continue in the short term, we think that both currencies will rebound …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Easing employment growth offset by stubborn wage growth The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June was the weakest gain since December 2020 and suggests labour market …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Easing wage growth despite jump in employment The surge in employment in June was not quite as strong as it looks, with hours worked essentially unchanged last month, but still …
Fall in Chilean inflation paves the way for start of easing cycle later this month The larger-than-expected decline in inflation in Chile to an 18-month low of 7.6% in June seals the deal on an interest cut at the central bank’s next meeting later this …
Vegetable price spike a key upside risk to inflation We noted in our previous Weekly that the sharp rise in vegetable prices was posing an upside risk to the inflation outlook, particularly given the large weighting of food in India’s CPI basket. Since …
Weak activity data The latest data support our view that euro-zone GDP contracted in Q2, in contrast to the consensus view that it rose. In May, euro-zone retail sales were weak and industrial output in Germany edged down, while in June the euro-zone …
Inflation falls back further in June The latest inflation data from across the region paint an encouraging picture, with the headline rate falling back for every country that has so far published figures for June. (See Chart 1.) Falling food and energy …
A fragile plateau The decline in the Halifax house price index in June was surprisingly modest given the scale of the increase in mortgage rates in the same month. But the current level of house prices looks unsustainably high given where mortgage rates …
How will the combination of El Niño and human-driven global warming affect commodities and economic performance over the short and long term? … El Niño – Macro, policy and market …
Renewed fall in May and outlook is bleak German industrial production fell in May and is likely to have declined in Q2. We think industry will continue to struggle over the rest of this year. The 0.2% m/m fall in industrial production in May was worse …
Wage growth to climb higher in Australia The big news out of Australia this week was the RBA’s decision to skip a rate hike at its meeting on Tuesday. However, the decision to stay put was largely motivated by a desire to reassess the outlook with a new …
China to restrict germanium and gallium exports Retaliating against joint American-Dutch-Japanese efforts to limit Chinese access to American semiconductor technology, China announced on Monday that it will restrict exports of germanium and gallium. These …
Stronger RMB by year-end The PBOC’s Q2 Monetary Policy Report, published last Friday, included new language pledging to “prevent large fluctuations in the exchange rate”. Then, with the renminbi approaching 7.3/$ at the start of this week, the PBOC pushed …
Strong wage growth in May won’t last Regular wage growth hit a near three-decade high in May and bonus payments surged, resulting in a jump in labour cash earnings. But we wouldn’t read too much into the result, since it appears to be mostly driven by a …
The fall in job openings in May suggests that labour shortages continue to ease, although the rebound in the job quits rate implies that wage growth is set to slow only gradually. The renewed fall in the job openings rate to 5.9%, from 6.2% in April, …
6th July 2023
We still think a recession is on the way in the UK, and that it will bring gilt yields back down. Developed market sovereign bond yields have been on the rise again so far today , as investors have continued to price back in the “higher for longer” …
Tanzania’s economic growth will remain sluggish by past standards over the next couple of years due to the effects of persistent drought and tight fiscal policy. But with policymaking shifting in a more business-friendly direction under President Hassan …
Saudi and Russia add to bearish oil tone Saudi Arabia announced that it will extend its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut at least one more month, which came along with the news that Russia plans to cut exports by 500,000bpd too. The decision to roll over …
Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have remained tight over the past year despite the weakness in economic activity and we think this will remain the case as recoveries gather pace into 2024 and structural demographic headwinds remain …
We expect the Brazilian real to reverse its gains against the US dollar by the end of the year as Brazil’s central bank eases policy and risk sentiment deteriorates. Although it has fallen a bit over the past few weeks, the Brazilian real has risen nearly …
The fading of China’s reopening rebound will weigh on recoveries in EMs like Thailand and Hong Kong whose tourism sectors depend heavily on Chinese visitors, but otherwise we think it presents relatively limited headwinds to the rest of the emerging …
Tunisia is struggling to get an IMF deal over the line and, unless President Saied’s government agrees in the near-future to allow the dinar to fall and to implement a large fiscal consolidation, the risk of a messy balance of payments crisis and …
Services activity rebounds; job openings still trending lower The rebound in the ISM services index to a four-month high of 53.9 in June, from 50.3, leaves a weighted average of the services and manufacturing indices at a level that, historically, has …
Interest rate cuts coming into closer vision The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 6.75%, but it seems that the balance of the MPC is shifting in a more dovish direction. We expect the first interest rate cut …
The Fed’s new FCI does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures. But our own FCI has had a better record at capturing turning points in real activity in recent decades, is timelier, more versatile, …
