ESIs point to weak growth, further disinflation The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in June, and our regional-weighted headline measure points to lacklustre GDP growth this …
29th June 2023
The Calm Before the Storm The tick up in mortgage approvals in May sustained the partial recovery from the slump at the beginning of the year. (See Chart 1.) But the increase reflects earlier declines in mortgage rates and will be cut short by their more …
Sentiment weakens and points to stagnation The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) weakened further in June and is broadly consistent with the economy stagnating at best. We expect the euro-zone’s mild recession to continue for the rest of the year as …
Banks’ exposure to commercial debt hits six-year high Net lending to commercial property remained in positive territory in May at £621m. And over the past three months, lending has totalled £2.3bn, the highest figure since June 2020. Loans for standing …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher interest rates continue to take a toll on bank lending Higher interest rates continued to weigh on bank lending in May, particularly in the housing market. This effect …
Riksbank likely to hike more than it expects The 25bp rate hike announced by the Riksbank today, which brings the key policy rate to 3.75%, had been strongly signalled at the Riksbank’s last meeting. But the accompanying statement and decisions to …
Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting differences in tone. Most notably, the ECB and BoE …
Inflation back under 2% The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB decision-making as …
Vietnam’s export-driven economy improved slightly in Q2 but growth was still weak by historical standards. With the external environment likely to remain unfavourable in the second half of the year, we expect the economy to struggle in the coming …
Click here to read the full publication. While “riskier” currencies have generally had the best of it over the past couple of months, the dollar has remained rangebound and, in aggregate, is broadly unchanged on the year. With the euro-zone already in …
28th June 2023
We expect the yen ’ s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country ’ s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US - dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially well. Today ’ s gains add to what has been a great …
Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late-May. Costly fuel subsidies have been removed and the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economic momentum continued in Q2 The industrial production and retail sales data for Russia for May continue a run of strong data showing that activity has recovered this year. …
Egypt’s path to largest MENA economy by 2050 In an Emerging Markets Update published this week, we highlighted which EMs will rise up the global league table. Within MENA, Egypt’s economy will take Saudi Arabia’s crown as the region’s largest economy by …
Investors generally revised down their interest rate expectations across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past month, partly reflecting weaker-than-expected inflation prints and more dovish communications from central bankers. Investors are now …
Higher mortgage rates have not only priced many buyers out of the market altogether, but also reduced the size of mortgage those still able to buy can take out. (See Chart 1.) The latest surge in mortgage rates to almost 6% means that, for the same …
The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result of softer domestic demand and as commodity prices …
NYC employment finally returns to its pre-pandemic peak Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over …
Overview – China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should still make some headway. Consumer Spending – …
Improvement in core inflation not enough to appease ECB The drop in Italy’s headline and core inflation in June is encouraging. But the euro-zone core rate is unlikely to have declined significantly due to base effects related to the anniversary of the …
The effects of tighter monetary policy are very clear in the money and credit data, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy will underperform the ECB and consensus forecasts. Data released this morning show that savers continue to tie up their …
Labour market still very tight and unit labour cost growth surging Inflation plunged in May but underlying measures moderating less rapidly Bank will deliver 25bp rate hikes at each of its next three meetings While headline inflation plunged in May, …
Slowdown in inflation not fast enough to prevent further rate hikes The sharp fall in inflation in May raises the risk that Reserve Bank of Australia will not raise any further at the upcoming meeting in July, but we still think that mounting upside risks …
Overview – Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will contract later this year. Even if recession is …
27th June 2023
Click here to read the full publication. Q2 looks set to go down as a decisive victory for “risky” assets over “safe” ones, thanks in large part to euphoria in the stock market over Artificial Intelligence (AI). But we suspect that the story over the …
Latin American equities have, in US dollar terms, fared even better than their US peers so far this year. We think that their outperformance will be interrupted by the global “risk-off” environment we anticipate over the rest of this year, but suspect the …
The removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira are likely to push inflation in Nigeria towards 35% y/y, which will prompt further interest rate hikes by the central bank and weigh on GDP growth over the coming quarters. Our growth …
Central bank meetings this month suggest that we’re now on the brink of an EM monetary easing cycle. In China, the Loan Prime Rates were lowered in response to flagging growth. And elsewhere, some central banks whose tightening cycles were particularly …
New home sales soar New home sales increased for the third consecutive month in May, rising by a punchy 12.2% m/m to reach 763,000 annualised, the highest level since February 2022. This leaves them firmly above pre-pandemic levels and around 20% above …
House prices remain resilient House prices rose in April by the fastest pace in close to a year, reflecting constraints to supply as high mortgage rates have discouraged existing homeowners from moving. Although prices have shown resilience in recent …
It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind the recent dovish shift by the region’s central banks. …
Equipment investment still set for further declines The 1.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in May was stronger than we had expected, even accounting for a big rise in the volatile commercial aircraft component. But the wider evidence still suggests …
Global Overview – Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several supply- and demand-side props to …
Some improvement, but core inflation pressures still a bit too strong for comfort This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . While the steep declines in both headline and core inflation in May were partly due to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Easing cycle to kick off in August The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.4% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with the surprisingly dovish tilt on Copom shown in …
The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be welcome news for Saudi Arabia as the annual Hajj pilgrimage …
While inflation plunged in May, we still think the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates again at its July meeting – and push the economy even closer towards recession. In this special, post-RBA briefing in which Marcel Thieliant, our Head …
The Bundesbank may make large losses in the coming years but these will be paper losses only, will have no impact on the government’s fiscal position, and are likely to fall over time. While the losses may fuel opposition to the ECB in some quarters, this …
26th June 2023
Limited fallout from tensions in Russia, for now The Wagner mutiny in Russia this weekend seems to have ended as quickly as it escalated, having had far less impact on global financial and commodity markets than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. …
We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that’s partly due to safe-haven demand, and partly because …
Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 100bps (to 22%) at an unscheduled monetary policy meeting. We think interest rates will need to remain elevated over the coming year as the government seeks to impress the IMF and …
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, with potential to develop into manufacturing …
If you aren't already receiving our Climate Economics coverage and would like us to arrange access, click here . Getting serious about decarbonisation would be more costly for governments than many fiscal scenarios would have you believe. Of course, the …
We expect euro-zone food inflation to fall sharply over the coming year due to the large declines in agricultural and energy commodity prices. But history suggests that the level of food prices rarely falls very far or for very long. With labour costs …
The armed uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group against the Russian military over the weekend has dealt a heavy blow to President Putin and exposed cracks in the regime. There are a lot of unknowns about how things will play out at this …
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy stagnated in May as the tailwind from reopening fizzled out. We think officials will roll out sufficient policy support to keep the recovery alive but not enough to prevent subdued …
One of the truisms of macro investing is that central banks in emerging markets “follow the Fed”. Yet on the evidence of the past week, it is policymakers in the emerging world that are charting a course for their counterparts in developed markets. This …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More bad news on the German economy The slump in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs, released on Friday, suggests that German GDP probably contracted for the …
At first glance, there’s little sign of friend-shoring among Japanese firms as they have directed a rising share of their outward foreign direct investment at China. However, this largely reflects China’s rising economic heft and firms are reducing their …
Recent data fan Bank of Canada's fears The latest Summary of Deliberations gave no hint about whether the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again at the July meeting but, with little progress yet on any of the key factors that the Bank is watching, …
23rd June 2023
