Central bankers have a tough task when it comes to communicating with markets – just ask the Bank of England’s Huw Pill, who started the week hinting at rate cuts and ended it with an insistence that the current setting has to remain in place to quash inflation.
In this week’s episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing delves into the challenges that central banks face in articulating policy to the market, and what lies behind the relatively hawkish rhetoric of late. Neil also talks about some of our key calls for the global economy in 2024 and discusses how concerns about debt sustainability will play out next year. The departure of three pandas from a zoo in Washington also comes up in his conversation with David Wilder as they talk through the latest on the fracturing of the global economy.
Plus, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey is on the show to talk about Saudi Arabia in a fracturing global economy, including what’s changed in the Kingdom’s relations with Beijing and Washington and how a return of Donald Trump to the White House could affect this diplomatic landscape.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Still plenty of scope for ‘supercore’ inflation to fall
The recent stickiness of the Fed’s preferred measure of ‘supercore’ inflation mainly reflects temporary factors rather than ongoing tightness in the labour market. The upshot is that we still expect a
US Drop-In: October CPI and the Fed rate outlook
Shortly after the release of the October CPI report, our US Economics team held a client briefing all about the October report and the inflation and growth outlooks and how they’ll shape Fed policy...
Where does Saudi Arabia sit in a fracturing world?
The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China
Economic fracturing to continue despite thaw in relations
A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear
Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook
The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook. But how is this fracturing process evolving, which...
The fracturing of the global economy
The macro and market consequences of US-China competition