Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe appear to have ended Q1 on a positive note, and Germany’s fiscal U-turn has improved prospects for regional export demand – we have recently revised up our GDP growth forecasts slightly for this year …
31st March 2025
Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) …
China Chart Pack (Mar. 25) …
28th March 2025
The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at best might just eke out positive growth this year. The rest of the region is less exposed to tariffs, but tight policy and worsening terms of trade will weigh on growth, …
26th March 2025
The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high inflation means that interest rate cuts will be smaller …
The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US imports due to tariff front-running appears to have caused US …
21st March 2025
A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average, as President Trump’s trade and immigration policies …
20th March 2025
India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 75bps of cuts to the …
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. '25) …
13th March 2025
The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0% annualised on average over the next four quarters. For …
11th March 2025
Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we expect the recent economic weakness to continue in the …
10th March 2025
While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a lingering drag from the previous interest rate hikes and …
5th March 2025
China Chart Pack (Feb. 25) …
28th February 2025
India’s economy is in the midst of a softer patch which we think will continue for a few more quarters. Headline CPI inflation is now within touching distance of the Reserve Bank’s 4% target and looks set to continue easing over the coming months. The RBI …
26th February 2025
Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The RBA began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this month, but it appeared in no hurry to loosen policy settings further. We expect the Bank to cut again in …
Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine, but we are not yet factoring a peace agreement into our forecasts. Even if a deal is reached, the macroeconomic implications would crucially depend on the features …
20th February 2025
EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds this year from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation means …
The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in advanced economies, and business survey indicators …
The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly and employment growth solid. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of this year. Nonetheless, with downward progress on core …
18th February 2025
Some major Latin American economies are among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced recently by US President Trump. But neither Brazil nor Argentina are heavily …
17th February 2025
Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) …
13th February 2025
GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we think that growth in Egypt and Morocco will strengthen on the …
12th February 2025
Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With real household incomes rising the most in years and the savings rate rather high, the rebound in consumer spending will continue in 2025. And with …
We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive “debt brake”. France’s budget deficit will remain very …
10th February 2025
The threat of US tariffs will hang over the economy for the foreseeable future, weighing on confidence and reducing investment. We have therefore revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5%, from 1.8%. We still expect the Bank of Canada to cut …
6th February 2025
Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will probably continue to cut interest rates only gradually. …
5th February 2025
Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t think this marks the start of a sustained improvement. Timely indicators of activity have weakened in early 2025, and lacklustre external demand will remain a …
31st January 2025
The economy should accelerate over the near-term, driven by consumption-boosting policy support. But the stimulus-driven recovery will be short-lived. We expect growth to slow later in the year, as the impact of stimulus fades and US tariffs create a …
Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) …
30th January 2025
EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation means …
28th January 2025
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with Mexico most vulnerable to his tariff threats while Central American economies could be heavily impacted by his migration plans. Elsewhere in the region, the main impact will …
27th January 2025
After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major benchmarks. Headline CPI inflation has fallen back within …
22nd January 2025
The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of this year. …
21st January 2025
The latest data suggest that resilient consumer spending supported GDP growth in the US towards the end of last year, while activity in other advanced economies remained weak. Industry continues to struggle in DMs, while in China it is benefiting from …
17th January 2025
Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the New Zealand economy in dire straits and with inflation …
16th January 2025
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25) …
15th January 2025
While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if the increase in the government’s borrowing costs due to …
13th January 2025
10th January 2025
Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start to lose momentum in 2025. Even so, with the yen set …
9th January 2025
There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up. We expect consumer spending to continue to support the …
7th January 2025
The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target range, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, with one 25bp cut in …
23rd December 2024
Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have limited scope to provide support. We think that stubborn inflation pressures and currency weakness will mean that interest rates are cut by less than other analysts …
20th December 2024
The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The leadership signalled following the recent Central Economic Work Conference that policy will be loosened next year which should continue to prop up activity. But …
19th December 2024
Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) …
18th December 2024
The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening terms of trade and US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks have intensified, in …
17th December 2024
EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation …
16th December 2024
The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4. Outside China, forward-looking indictors point to weaker …
12th December 2024
GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe. We also think that inflation will be below 2% in …
6th December 2024
China Chart Pack (Nov. 24) …
29th November 2024
