Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
At 3.7% m/m in January, the rise in new home sales came in slightly below expectations. Very wet weather in the West seems partly to blame. The good news is that with inventory levels improving, builders’ confidence high and earnings growth set to …
24th February 2017
Existing home sales in January saw the largest month-on-month gain in nearly a year, to take them to their highest level since early 2007. The post-Trump jump in mortgage applications will have helped sales in January. But that surge in mortgage demand …
22nd February 2017
Homebuilding activity has made a slow start to 2017, with housing starts falling back by 2.6% m/m in January. The jump in homebuilder confidence following Trump’s win has also been gradually unwinding. Nevertheless, with the inventory of existing homes …
16th February 2017
Mortgage applications for home purchase held up in January, even as mortgage rates resumed their upward trend. However, inventory shortages are weighing on home sales. The number of existing single-family homes for sale hit a 20-year low in December. …
7th February 2017
The recent strength in house price growth continued in December according to CoreLogic. Prices were estimated to have increased 7.2% in 2016 – the fastest pace of growth for 2½ years. With inventory levels set to remain low, and housing demand on the up, …
After jumping following Trump’s win in November, mortgage applications for home purchase held their ground in January. But a lack of housing inventory will act to constrain demand for home purchase mortgages this year, even as household incomes rise. …
1st February 2017
After reaching a 50-year low in mid-2016, the homeownership rate edged up for the second consecutive time in the final quarter. A lack of inventory is preventing a faster rebound in homeownership. Indeed, despite a slight rise in the latest figures, the …
31st January 2017
Case-Shiller reported that average US house prices rose by 0.8% m/m in November, continuing the recent trend of significant gains. With housing demand rising on the back of Trump’s win, and inventory levels at 20-year lows, a further acceleration in house …
New home sales fell further than expected in December, ending 2016 on something of a weak note. But the monthly data are very volatile. And with mortgage applications rising, and housing starts set to increase, we doubt this is a sign that new home sales …
26th January 2017
Existing homes sales dropped back in December, as the lowest level of inventory since records began in 1999 weighed on activity. That shortage of homes for sale also suggests that any boost to housing demand from a Trump fiscal stimulus will primarily …
24th January 2017
Despite an improving economic backdrop, the share of young adults living with their parents increased yet again in 2016. In part, that may reflect the influence of structural demographic factors as Americans delay getting married. But with wage growth …
23rd January 2017
December’s jump in housing starts was driven by the volatile multifamily sector, implying that homebuilding activity may not be quite as buoyant as it initially seems. But single-family permits reached a nine-year high, supporting our view that it will be …
19th January 2017
As it stands, construction of the wall along the southern border is still very much on Trump’s agenda. Alongside a rise in other infrastructure spending, that is likely to worsen labour and material shortages currently affecting the homebuilding industry. …
17th January 2017
The 25bps cut to the annual insurance premiums for mortgages backed by the FHA will offset some of the recent rise in mortgage rates. But with inventory levels very low, the primary impact of any boost to purchasing power will be higher house prices. As …
11th January 2017
Housing demand was given a short-term boost following Trump’s win, as some buyers brought forward a planned purchase in order to secure a low mortgage rate before they increased further. But with the months’ supply of homes on the market close to a …
9th January 2017
The expectation that mortgage rates are set to continue to rise following Trump’s win helped support mortgage applications for home purchase in December. While that boost will soon subside, faster income growth will outweigh higher mortgage rates in 2017, …
4th January 2017
The recent acceleration in house prices picked up pace in November, with CoreLogic reporting that annual growth exceeded 7% for the first time since May 2014. A spike in housing demand following Trump’s win, and continued low levels of inventory, are …
3rd January 2017
Trump’s win will have two offsetting impacts on the housing market. Mortgage rates have already spiked since the election and will rise further. All else equal that will depress housing demand. Yet a fiscal stimulus also appears to be on the cards next …
16th December 2016
The 18.7% m/m drop in housing in starts in November was largely expected given the surge recorded in October. In any event, the drop was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector. With homebuilders’ confidence rising on the back of Trump’s win, the …
Over the next couple of years, the expected gradual increase in the homeownership rate will reduce demand for single-family rental homes. But lower foreclosures will also cut the supply of those properties, leaving rental vacancy rates broadly unchanged. …
8th December 2016
The sharp rise in mortgage rates following Trump’s win has had differing impacts on mortgage applications for refinance and home purchase. While refinancing activity continued to decline in November, a rush of buyers trying to beat a further rise in rates …
7th December 2016
The October CoreLogic report provides further evidence that house price growth is gathering pace. Even accounting for the fact that the initial estimate of a 1.5% m/m gain will be revised down in due course, it is clear that the combination of a gentle …
6th December 2016
Trump’s win, and the expected fiscal stimulus that it will generate, has led to a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields. In turn, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to its highest level since June 2015. (See Chart.) That has boosted mortgage …
5th December 2016
In contrast to the rise in mortgage rates following the 2013 taper tantrum, the latest jump in rates is due to expectations of a fiscal stimulus, not concerns about a less supportive monetary policy. Accordingly, stronger GDP and income growth should …
30th November 2016
The 0.8% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in September means prices are on track to meet our forecast for a 6% rise this year. Beyond that, higher mortgage interest rates will take some of the heat out of the market. But with …
29th November 2016
New home sales fell in October, as low levels of inventory continued to bite. And while a rise in housing starts could help, any boost to home sales will take time to manifest itself. … New Home Sales …
23rd November 2016
Existing home sales rose for the second month in a row in October, although the gain of 2% m/m was modest. A lack of inventory is preventing an otherwise favourable economic backdrop from giving sales a larger boost. The coming rise in mortgage rates also …
22nd November 2016
The 25.5% m/m rise in housing starts in October was the largest since 1982, and starts were up in all regions and across both the single and multifamily sectors. While some of that gain will be reversed in November, this is welcome evidence that builders …
17th November 2016
The latest NAHB survey on builders’ expectations for multifamily production points to a 15% drop in starts over the next year. But with the demand for rental accommodation set to hold up, we don’t think that signals the start of a sustained downward trend …
14th November 2016
Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little on housing policy. But were he to attempt to loosen …
9th November 2016
Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase have been on a steady downward trend since mid-September. The drop in refinancing can be attributed to rising mortgage interest rates, as markets anticipate that the Fed will hike rates in …
7th November 2016
The Fed looks set to hike the fed funds rate in December, heralding the end of the period of ultra-low mortgage interest rates which has persisted since 2010. We expect 30-year mortgage rates to rise above 4% early next year, and hit 5% by the end of …
3rd November 2016
A rise in mortgage rates led a drop in refinancing activity in October, and a lack of housing inventory pushed applications for home purchase to their lowest level since the start of the year. With rates set to rise gradually from here, and limited …
2nd November 2016
After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house price growth is accelerating. Sellers have been able to …
1st November 2016
The drop in the homeownership rate in the second quarter was reversed in the third, as a favourable economic backdrop allowed for a gradual rise in first-time buyers. As a result, the number of rental households edged down. But a lack of homes for sale …
27th October 2016
Our estimate of housing equity withdrawal (HEW) shows that, in aggregate, households have yet to return to using their homes as a piggy bank. While the factors holding HEW back are likely to ease the outlook for HEW is, nevertheless, fairly subdued. …
26th October 2016
The small 3.1% m/m rise in new home sales in September comes after a significant downward revision to August’s reading, highlighting that low inventory levels are preventing any sustained rise in housing market activity. … New Home Sales …
The 0.6% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in August was the largest for 10-months. Given very tight market conditions, that acceleration was expected, and further house price gains are likely over the remainder of the year. … …
25th October 2016
The gap between the average price of new and existing homes now stands at a six year low. But that fall is mainly a reflection of limitations in the available data. There is little evidence that the new-build premium itself is falling. Accordingly, the …
20th October 2016
Existing home sales rose by a respectable 3.2% m/m in September, helped by a welcome rise in the share of first-time buyers. But with inventory levels still very low, rising housing demand is more likely to feed through into higher house prices than …
The sharp drop in housing starts in September was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector, so shouldn’t ring too many alarm bells. And with building permits seeing a strong pick-up, much of that weakness should be reversed next month. … Housing …
19th October 2016
Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from buying. And even if the proposals do help more people …
12th October 2016
A contraction in existing home sales, for the second consecutive month in August, failed to prevent a further decline in inventory levels. That lack of inventory is acting to constrain housing market activity – the pending home sales index points to …
11th October 2016
The 4.1% m/m rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in September does nothing to change the fact that mortgage demand has stalled since the start of the year. A lack of inventory is constraining demand for mortgages, a situation which is unlikely …
5th October 2016
Even accounting for the fact that the first estimate of house prices by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it is clear the house prices are accelerating. After seasonal-adjustment prices surged by 1.2% m/m in August, the largest gain in over 11-years …
4th October 2016
While the rising popularity of Airbnb may have worsened housing shortages in some cities, it is hard to blame the apartment sharing website on the nationally high level of vacant homes. Rather, homes being kept empty by homemovers seems to be the primary …
29th September 2016
House price gains are picking up pace as buyers compete for a very limited number of homes for sale. At the national level, the 0.4% m/m rise in July was the largest for six months. And with supply conditions tightening since then, house price gains are …
27th September 2016
The drop in new home sales in August was smaller than expected, and comes on the back of an upwardly revised surge in sales in July. That has kept market conditions tight, which will weigh on activity in the short term. But it shouldn’t take long for …
26th September 2016
Existing home sales fell in August, as extremely tight market conditions outweighed any boost to housing demand from favourable economic trends. With the inventory of homes for sale at its lowest for over 15-years, there is little chance activity will …
22nd September 2016
At the national level, the Zillow index of housing market confidence offers a similar perspective to other measures of housing market sentiment. But with its short history and infrequent publication schedule, it is hard to argue that it tells us much that …
21st September 2016
