Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The economic backdrop to euro-zone commercial property markets continues to deteriorate. Our forecasts, that all member states will experience some falls in economic output next year, appear to be on track. Recession will put downward pressure on rental …
8th November 2012
Fresh signs of life in the consumer sector, together with relatively low retail property prices, seem to have prompted investor interest in the Romanian retail market. But the immediate outlook for consumer spending is weak and, although there is …
7th November 2012
Recent business surveys do nothing to undermine our forecast that Germany will lapse back into recession next year. Admittedly, that recession should be mild. But that is unlikely to prevent commercial property rental values from falling by up to 5% over …
1st November 2012
The results of this morning’s Q3 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggest that both occupier and investment demand for commercial property in the euro-zone is likely to weaken in the near term. And with many banks reportedly still keen to cut their exposure to the …
31st October 2012
To date, despite a sharp drop in investment volumes and growing evidence of a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, property yields in Moscow have not risen as we anticipated. But while a case can be made that yields in Moscow will remain resilient to the …
30th October 2012
The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not rushing to take on new loans. Meanwhile, new commercial …
25th October 2012
Over the next year or so, we think retail rental values in Stockholm will remain flat. Indeed, although we don’t expect consumer spending to contract, growth is likely to be very subdued, especially compared to the rates seen in 2010 and 2011. What’s …
23rd October 2012
Given the weak economic outlook for the Emerging European economies and the fact that credit conditions are likely to remain tight, we suspect that over the next 18 months the recent rise in commercial property transaction volumes in the region will not …
18th October 2012
Industrial rents seem to be more sensitive to changes in the Swiss economy in Geneva than in Zurich. And industrial rents in Geneva also look a little high compared to Zurich, at least relative to recent norms. Given the weak outlook for the Swiss …
15th October 2012
The recent rebound in French real estate equity prices suggests that our forecast for commercial property capital values in Paris to fall by a total of 15% to 20% in 2012-13 may be too pessimistic. But with the underlying health of the occupier market …
10th October 2012
Weak prospects for Spain’s consumer sector suggest that retail occupier demand will deteriorate before the end of this year. That together with a development pipeline which is still growing makes us think that, despite their recent resilience, rental …
9th October 2012
Details surrounding last week’s privatisation deal involving the International Broadcasting Centre in Athens suggest that the Greek commercial property market may be even weaker than agency figures imply. And, together with doubts over its future in the …
3rd October 2012
Agency estimates of a huge development pipeline seem to suggest that Warsaw’s office market faces a period of excess supply. After all, economic sentiment in Poland is deteriorating, and occupier demand has begun to soften. Given that, however, and the …
1st October 2012
Recent evidence shows that the Frankfurt retail market is seeing very strong occupier demand. But this demand seems to be driven more by the low level of Frankfurt retail rents relative to the national average than any particular local economic factor. … …
27th September 2012
Increased use of rental incentives seems to have had a powerful dampening effect on the response of headline office rents in Amsterdam to swings – both up and down – in the vacancy rate. The implication is that, while we expect the next move for …
25th September 2012
Over the next five years we think that, with regard to the outlook for rental values, the composition of its occupier base and its low level of rental values means that, on average, Frankfurt is likely to see the strongest growth of Germany’s four largest …
20th September 2012
Reports that retail rents in Istanbul have fallen by about 6% over the past year seem consistent with the sharp slowdown in consumer spending and the large boost to supply last year. But if we are right that domestic demand will recover in 2013 and 2014, …
19th September 2012
The sharp rise in office take-up seen over the past six months in both Amsterdam and Brussels is unlikely to be sustained over the next 15 months or so. In fact, we think that take-up will fall as underlying occupier demand weakens in-line with …
14th September 2012
The rise in Prague retail rents seen over the past year or so is unlikely to be sustained over the next 18 months. But even though we think the consumer spending outlook will remain weak, the relatively low levels of new supply over the past two years …
12th September 2012
We see no reason to expect the wide spread that has emerged between prime office yields in Budapest and those in Prague and Warsaw to narrow anytime soon. Instead, Hungary’s relatively weak economic outlook and the credibility deficit of its policymakers …
6th September 2012
Recent signs of an economic slowdown have been in line with our expectations. Thus we feel little need to revise our relatively positive Russian commercial property forecasts. However, the gloomy nature of the news flow will certainly add to investors’ …
5th September 2012
Industrial property in Copenhagen is unlikely to buck the general trend of falling capital values in European markets. But over the next 18 months, and in contrast to the past five years, those falls should be smaller, or at least no larger, than those …
31st August 2012
Sweden’s strong economic fundamentals and high transparency scores have boosted overseas demand for Stockholm office property and pushed yields down to historically low levels. But we are sceptical that safe haven flows will be strong enough to underpin …
28th August 2012
Norway and Sweden continue to ride out the euro-zone crisis relatively well. But the picture in Emerging Europe is less bright. The Czech and Hungarian economies both contracted in Q2, while the pace of growth in Russia eased. Consistent with that, the …
24th August 2012
The weakness of indicators of consumer activity in the Netherlands suggests that the recent pause in retail rental value growth is unlikely to be a one-off. Even so, the outlook for Dutch retail property should be better than for most euro-zone markets. … …
21st August 2012
In Q2, the euro-zone economy contracted as peripheral member states recorded sharp falls in GDP. Consistent with that, falls in all-property capital values remain centred on peripheral markets. But if the recession deepens, that could well change in the …
15th August 2012
Reports that investor interest in Spanish and Italian property has slumped in recent months seem consistent with our view that from current levels, property yields in both markets will see above-average rises, of at least another 60bps over the next 12 to …
14th August 2012
The euro-zone crisis already appears to be having a detrimental impact on economic growth across the rest of Europe and over the next two years, most non-euro-zone economies will experience a period of sub-trend growth, or in some cases a mild recession. …
8th August 2012
The unfolding recession in the euro-zone has considerably further to run. And it does not bode well for commercial property. Occupier demand will weaken and most markets will see fresh falls in rental values over the remainder of this year and into 2013. …
At around 4.5%, Brussels retail yields are back very close to the lows recorded in late 2007 and early 2008. On this basis, only in Vienna and some German cities does retail property look more expensive. Unfortunately, we expect the Belgian economy to …
2nd August 2012
After a strong upturn in 2010 and most of 2011, office rents in Moscow have stabilised. Given that the economy is likely to slow and that the vacancy rate amongst the capital’s existing office stock is still high, we doubt that a renewed upturn in rents …
31st July 2012
Exports to the troubled, peripheral euro-zone economies account for a relatively high share of GDP in both Hungary and the Czech Republic. And the open nature of both economies also leaves them exposed to the indirect effects of the crisis on global …
26th July 2012
Over the next couple of years, the response of Western European retail rental values to weak consumer spending is likely to be muted, in other words more similar to the experience of 2008/9 than to the early 1990s. … How will European retail rental values …
24th July 2012
The latest indicators from the Paris office market suggest that occupier demand is softening while development activity is picking up. Accordingly, our concern that the city will face a supply overhang and, thus, a downturn in rental values next year …
19th July 2012
We think that the safe-haven status of Switzerland’s commercial property market has allowed Swiss all-property yields to fall to very low levels. But now they look stretched and vulnerable to a deterioration in the economic outlook. Hence, if we are right …
18th July 2012
The sharp fall in 10-year German Bund yields since the end of Q1 has pushed all-property/Bund yield spreads in the euro-zone to new highs. Clearly, property yields now incorporate some allowances for negative rental growth expectations, above-average …
12th July 2012
Early last year, we argued that the investment case for the Italian retail market was weak. If anything, the situation has worsened since then. Indeed, a negative outlook for rents, coupled with heightened political uncertainty, suggests that required …
11th July 2012
One of the key messages from JLL’s 2012 Global Real Estate Transparency Index was that CEE markets – especially Poland – have become more transparent relative to Western Europe. But we think that relatively poor scores on important transparency components …
4th July 2012
Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our forecasts that investment will generally either be lower …
2nd July 2012
The latest snapshot of business and consumer confidence across Europe suggests that conditions in euro-zone occupier markets have deteriorated during the second quarter. However, in the short-term, the outlook for demand, and thus rental values, looks …
28th June 2012
The current low share prices of French REITs relative to NAVs might suggest that there is value in the sector. But given that French property yields are low, and that the economy is likely to contract this year and next, we think that low valuations are a …
25th June 2012
A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed without undue problems. But over the next two years, our view …
21st June 2012
The strong performance of Norway’s economy in Q1 raises the question whether our retail rental value forecasts may be a touch gloomy. However, given that international retailers are looking to scale back expansion plans in the face of the euro-zone …
20th June 2012
Office rental values in Spain are forecast to fall by around 15% over 2012-13 as occupier demand weakens further. But on a city level, Madrid is exposed to greater downside risks than Barcelona. This is down to supply-side factors and the fact that Madrid …
13th June 2012
On past form, the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) seen in Germany in the first quarter is a signal that a sharp fall in office take-up is likely to follow. We expect investment to fall further over the next couple years. And together with our …
12th June 2012
Relatively strong domestic demand is likely to support industrial occupier markets in Poland, Russia and Turkey over the next couple of years. This should ensure that all three markets outperform the rest of Emerging Europe. But with a slightly higher …
8th June 2012
Most of the non-euro-zone European economies grew in Q1 2012. However, economic sentiment has been below normal in a majority of these countries and property investment volumes fell sharply in CEE in the first three months of the year. However, in Q1, …
1st June 2012
Reports that office rents in Oslo continued to rise in Q1 seem consistent with the economy’s stronger-than-expected start to the year. And they almost certainly suggest that our forecast of stagnant rents this year will be overshot. But if we are right, a …
30th May 2012
For now, the Belgian economy is clearly outperforming its struggling neighbour, the Netherlands. But we expect both to contract this year and next, by a total of between 3% and 4%. Based on the historic relationships between growth in commercial property …
24th May 2012
In a worst case scenario, over the next five years, some €36bn worth of European property assets could be liquidated by German open-ended property funds (GOEFs). Our downbeat views on the European economic outlook suggest that investment demand will be …
21st May 2012
