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This page brings together our analysis of how Donald Trump's return to the White House will affect the outlook for emerging economies. Use the Table of Contents on the right to navigate. All of our analysis on the election, including the implications for …
28th June 2024
Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple of years. …
25th June 2024
Bond index inclusion a positive for government… The Indian government’s long-awaited ambition to have its local currency bonds included in global indices will finally come to fruition next Friday when JPMorgan Chase adds the country to its GBI-EM Global …
21st June 2024
Overview – Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple …
20th June 2024
Prime Minister Modi’s third term got underway this week with the selection of the new cabinet. 25 of 30 cabinet ministers are unchanged from the previous government, including all of those in key roles. (The remaining five spots have been freed up for the …
14th June 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation cooler than most expected Consumer price inflation came in cooler than most expected last month, which should reassure the RBI as it considers when to begin its easing …
12th June 2024
The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s weakened electoral mandate, there are good reasons to …
11th June 2024
Equities up at the end of an extraordinary week The dust is settling on an extraordinary week for domestic politics and financial markets. Equities rallied on Monday (See Chart 1) following the release of election exit polls at the weekend pointing to a …
7th June 2024
The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we maintain our long-held view that the easing cycle will …
RBI still on course for August rate cut The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we maintain our …
India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced in to India’s equities, both on the political and …
6th June 2024
Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to work as the head of a stable coalition, and the broader …
4th June 2024
Modi on the brink Narendra Modi appears well on course for a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister according to exit polls that project another big parliamentary majority for the BJP. Admittedly, exit polls have a patchy track record in India …
2nd June 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy booming on eve of election The GDP figures for Q1 confirm that India’s economy slowed a touch at the start of the year but was nonetheless still booming on the eve of the …
31st May 2024
Will PM Modi secure another majority? Voting in India’s seven-week election extravaganza ends tomorrow, and results are due to be announced on Tuesday 4 th June. Clients can see all of our election insights here . We will also be discussing the election …
Repo rate on hold at 6.50% next week, but MPC to drop its hawkish policy stance That should set the stage for an August rate cut We think rate cuts will be a bit more aggressive this year than consensus forecasts The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will …
30th May 2024
The mammoth general election is entering its final week, with just 115 of the 544 constituencies left to vote before the result is announced on 4 th June. Clients can see all of our election insights here . We will also be discussing the election result …
24th May 2024
India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the lower-end manufactured goods which are typically more …
23rd May 2024
India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data suggest that the strength of economic activity has continued through to the general election. Headline inflation is grinding back to the RBI’s 4% target …
20th May 2024
Non-aligned policy to be tested in US-China divide This week we took a deep-dive into a topic that regularly comes up in our conversations with clients: how India positions itself in a fragmenting global economy. (See here .) Our analysis makes the point …
17th May 2024
India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential universal tariff on all US imports under a second Trump …
16th May 2024
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation edging closer to RBI’s 4% target Headline consumer price inflation edged down in April to an 11-month low and, looking ahead, we think it will reach the RBI’s 4% …
13th May 2024
Sticking to Q3 call despite shifting consensus The latest poll from Bloomberg published this week show that the consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. It is now forecasting 50bps of cuts by the end of the year, which would …
10th May 2024
Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t immune; a surge in demand for electricity to power cooling …
9th May 2024
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key macroeconomic data for India. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
Trump’s return could benefit India With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display in an interview with the Time magazine this week, what might the implications of a second Trump presidency be for India? India is not as dependent on US …
3rd May 2024
All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal US import tariff or a dollar devaluation, and those …
29th April 2024
Ongoing heatwaves are a risk to inflation The past couple of weeks have brought more good news on India’s economy. The flash composite PMI for April released on Tuesday rose to a near 14-year high. (See Chart 1.) That suggests that the strength of …
26th April 2024
India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data suggest that the strength of economic activity has continued through to the eve of the election. Headline inflation is grinding back to the RBI’s 4% …
24th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity strong on eve of election The flash composite PMI reading for April suggests that the strength of economic activity over the past few quarters has continued through to …
23rd April 2024
BJP on course for another big win The biggest (and most expensive) vote in history commenced today as India started voting in its general election. Almost a billion people are eligible so given the daunting logistical challenge, voting will take place …
19th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% …
12th April 2024
Encouraging signs for manufacturing sector The general election is a week away and manifestos have finally been released. The main opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party has now published its full manifesto, while the BJP published manifestos for …
RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central bank's 4% target, we …
5th April 2024
Identifying pockets of risk amid the optimism The positive news on India shows no signs of abating. The final composite PMI reading for March released this week rose to a 90-month(!) high. (See Chart 1.) That was underpinned by strength in both the …
The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central bank's 4% target, we remain comfortable with our view that …
Positivity surrounding India’s near and long-term economic outlook is arguably at its highest in a decade, with good reason. But amid the optimism, it is easy to become complacent to the downside risks. This Focus highlights five key risks that we think …
3rd April 2024
External position looks secure Balance of payments data released this week show that India’s current account deficit narrowed from US$11.4bn (1.3% of GDP) in Q3 2023 to US$10.5bn (1.2% of GDP) in Q4. Taking a longer perspective of the four quarters to Q4, …
28th March 2024
MPC to keep repo rate on hold at 6.50% next week Committee to wait until headline inflation reaches 4% before pivoting, probably in Q3 We think rates cuts will be a bit more aggressive this year than consensus forecasts We agree with consensus …
27th March 2024
India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data suggest that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. Headline inflation has eased in recent months and we think it will reach the 4% midpoint …
26th March 2024
Election season is here After a seemingly interminable wait, the Election Commission this week finally confirmed the dates for the general election. Almost a billion people are eligible to vote, making it the largest expression of democratic principles …
22nd March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The flash composite PMI reading for March suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. While growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India …
21st March 2024
We hosted an online briefing to discuss EM financial risks in more detail. Watch the recording here . Our risk indicators are presented as an interactive EM dashboard on our website here . The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing …
20th March 2024
Prime Minister Modi’s BJP appears on course to remain in power after India’s upcoming general election. But which party wins probably matters less for the economy and financial markets than whether the election delivers a stable government with a working …
19th March 2024
Global outperformance set to continue This week we published our Q2 India Economic Outlook . The key point is that while growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India will remain a global outperformer. We are forecasting GDP growth of 7% in …
15th March 2024
Overview – India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple of …
13th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Slow grind back to 4% Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s …
12th March 2024
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, the potential to develop …
11th March 2024
RBI is stepping in to prevent currency appreciation The Indian rupee has stood out so far this year as being one of only a small handful of EM currencies to have strengthened against the US dollar. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Currencies vs. US$ (% change, …
8th March 2024
