Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Europe Economics Use setting Emerging Europe Economics
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe appear to have ended Q1 on a positive note, and Germany’s fiscal U-turn has improved prospects for regional export demand – we have recently revised up our GDP growth forecasts slightly for this year …
31st March 2025
Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine, but we are not yet factoring a peace agreement into our forecasts. Even if a deal is reached, the macroeconomic implications would crucially depend on the features …
20th February 2025
Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t think this marks the start of a sustained improvement. Timely indicators of activity have weakened in early 2025, and lacklustre external demand will remain a …
31st January 2025
Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have limited scope to provide support. We think that stubborn inflation pressures and currency weakness will mean that interest rates are cut by less than other analysts …
20th December 2024
The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already below-consensus growth forecasts have shifted further to …
28th November 2024
The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP growth in many parts of the region looks as though it will come in below our previous expectations this year. That said, above-target inflation remains a concern, and we …
31st October 2024
Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus GDP growth in most countries this year. The export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe will be held back by stagnating demand from key euro-zone …
26th September 2024
The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and leading indicators have weakened at the start of Q3. With interest rates likely to be kept high in Russia and Turkey over the coming months, we think that a further …
22nd August 2024
The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe strengthened further in Q2, while Russia’s economy continued to overheat. In Turkey there are signs that demand may be beginning to moderate in response to policy …
18th July 2024
With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures resurfacing in several countries, we think that the scope for monetary easing in the region this year is relatively narrow. Our interest rate forecasts in most …
13th June 2024
Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest that it has picked up further in most countries in Q2. With inflation likely to rise (or stay) above central banks’ targets in the second half of this year, the …
22nd May 2024
The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month has generally come alongside an upward revision to interest rate expectations across Emerging Europe. However, we think analysts may still be overestimating how far …
25th April 2024
Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most countries it is now back within central bank …
27th March 2024
Economies in Central and Eastern Europe ended 2023 on a weak note, but the outlook for this year looks brighter. Lower inflation and interest rates should support a recovery in domestic demand over the coming quarters. In contrast, Turkey’s economy has …
29th February 2024
Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023, but we think that the disinflation process is entering a more difficult phase in 2024 as demand is beginning to recover. While monetary easing cycles are likely to …
31st January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to central banks’ targets will take time and we think that monetary …
19th December 2023
Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in slower growth in 2024. Inflation will …
23rd November 2023
Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation pressures look set to keep building and further interest rate hikes lie in store. In contrast, downturns across …
19th October 2023
Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation …
20th September 2023
Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remained depressed and we don’t expect a meaningful recovery until 2024. Inflation pressures are building in Russia and Turkey on the back of …
22nd August 2023
Russia and Turkey have had a strong first half of the year, but growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remains depressed and we don’t expect a meaningful recovery until 2024. While inflation pressures are building in Russia and Turkey and further …
26th July 2023
Investors generally revised down their interest rate expectations across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past month, partly reflecting weaker-than-expected inflation prints and more dovish communications from central bankers. Investors are now …
28th June 2023
There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and Eastern Europe this year. This has been particularly …
31st May 2023
Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects resulting from the sharp rise in prices after the war in …
26th April 2023
The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that swept across the region. The good news is that banks …
23rd March 2023
The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered the impact of Western sanctions better than expected and …
22nd February 2023
The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of activity have generally improved. The outlook for external …
26th January 2023
Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s central bank has suggested that interest rates may be …
19th December 2022
Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in Czechia, Hungary and Latvia. Admittedly, there have been …
24th November 2022
Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year – the Turkish lira, Hungarian forint and Polish zloty …
26th October 2022
Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price expectations have declined across CEE. CPI inflation has already …
22nd September 2022
Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected as it was able to re-orientate trade to …
31st August 2022
The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest surveys show consumer confidence tanking and economic …
28th July 2022
Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence, and the surprise inflation releases for May prompted …
29th June 2022
GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not (yet) fallen off a cliff as had been expected. Industry in …
31st May 2022
Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to rationing in Poland, but it will have a big impact in …
28th April 2022
The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign default have not materialised and Russia’s financial …
30th March 2022
Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and their access to the international financial system. …
25th February 2022
Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard suggests that product shortages may have peaked. We think …
27th January 2022
Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in decades, food inflation continues to surge and strong …
20th December 2021
COVID-19 outbreaks have diverged across the region in the past month, with new cases and deaths falling recently in the hard-hit Eastern European countries of Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia, stabilising in Russia and Turkey but rising sharply in parts of …
30th November 2021
COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere. Governments have tightened containment measures, including …
26th October 2021
Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to flatline and, in some cases, fall. What’s more, hard activity …
29th September 2021
Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3. However, the recovery has been accompanied by a marked …
26th August 2021
The region’s economies have continued to rebound strongly over the past month as virus outbreaks have largely been contained and restrictions have been lifted. Surveys of sentiment in the services sector have surged and high-frequency mobility data have …
28th July 2021
Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. High-frequency data show that mobility has surpassed its pre-pandemic level in most countries and vaccination programmes …
24th June 2021
The strength of inflation and expectations for a strong economic recovery have prompted a clear hawkish shift among Central European central banks. In Hungary, the MNB has set in motion the start of a tightening cycle in June and used its meeting this …
27th May 2021
Third virus waves held back recoveries in most countries in Q1, but the good news is that they appear to have peaked as new daily COVID-19 cases have fallen since mid-March. Russia has so far avoided a third wave and easing pressures on health systems …
28th April 2021
Emerging Europe has been at the heart of the shift in EM monetary policy over the past month, with central banks in Russia, Turkey and Ukraine raising interest rates in March. The triggers for tightening were largely home grown in nature, including a …
25th March 2021
