US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) Employment continues to trend higher across the 30 metros, but nearly half remain short of pre-pandemic peaks, including all six major metros. Indeed, with job growth slowing, we don't expect... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Probably approaching the final stage of the dollar rally While the dollar has now reached a 20-year high and looks increasingly overvalued on a long-term basis, we think it will rise further in the near term as the global economy falls into recession and... 2nd November 2022 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response New Prime Minister will have to work hard to restore credibility 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) On the back of a rise in mortgage rates to above 7%, home purchase applications took another step down in October. That points to further declines in home sales in the coming months. With mortgage... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2022) 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A weak economy may matter most for sector performance The turnaround in the US stock market since 14th October has coincided with a retreat in Treasury yields. Nonetheless, two of its three “long-duration” sectors have lagged amid disappointing news on... 1st November 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control not on its way out The Bank of Japan’s renewed difficulties in defending its 10-year yield target have prompted fresh speculation that it may abandon Yield Curve Control. However, neither concerns about the functioning... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) The jump in mortgage interest rates is now being felt in house prices, with Nationwide reporting the first month-on-month fall since July 2021. House prices are now set to stay on a sustained downward... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 22) 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Small fall in apartment rents as recession bites We expect a small fall in apartment rents next year, as stretched affordability and stagnant employment hit demand while completions surge. But as job growth recovers and the vacancy rate drops back... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage approvals fell in September as buyers began to adjust to rising interest rates. With further rate rises likely in the coming months, we expect this downward trend to continue and for lending... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Sep.) The increase in precautionary household saving in September and weakening demand for credit poses an extra downside risk to our forecast that the economy will contract by 2% during a recession. These... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) Net lending to commercial property was positive in September but, looking through the monthly volatility, there is a clear downward trend in lending. With the economy entering a recession and property... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Spike in mortgage rates to trigger price correction The jump in market interest rates following the ill-advised “mini” budget has forced quoted mortgage rates up to over 5%, a level not seen since 2009. That will turn the slowdown in demand already... 31st October 2022 · 25 mins read