Canada Economics Update Beginning of the end for Bank’s tightening cycle Governor Tiff Macklem shifted his tone notably today, reassuring that the Bank was “trying to balance the risks of over- and under-tightening”, whereas previously the emphasis had stressed that it was... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) The 10.9% m/m fall in new home sales in September partly reversed last month’s surprise jump. But they are still out of lockstep with both buyer traffic and mortgage applications. Those indicators... 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial set to underperform Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2022) As expected, NCREIF all-property total returns dropped back significantly in Q3, to just 0.6% q/q, as investor demand pared back in response to higher alternative asset yields and the poor outlook for... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack A period of calm after the storm The reversal of Truss/Kwarteng’s fiscal policies and Rishi Sunak’s appointment as the UK’s new Prime Minister has ushered in a period of calm in UK financial markets after the recent storm. Indeed... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April While the strength in Q3 inflation would favour another 50bp rate hike next week, we suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to a smaller 25bp increase. However, we are pencilling in one more... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) Inflation was stronger than expected last quarter and will rise further in Q4. That’s consistent with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates more aggressively than most... 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tightening cycles have further to run Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug.) Both Case-Shiller and the FHFA reported an acceleration in month-on-month house price falls in August. With mortgage rates rising to a 20-year high in October and the economy set to enter a recession... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian oil prices underperforming The rebound in global oil prices over the past month has not been matched by those in Canada, with Western Canadian Select (WCS) instead trading closer to $60 per barrel, as the discount between WCS... 25th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Unpacking the fall in the valuation of the UK stock market Despite stabilising a bit recently, the valuation of UK mid- and large-cap equities in general has fallen recently in both absolute terms and relative to comparable indices elsewhere. While that doesn... 25th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (October) 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read