Capital Daily European G-SIBs need a better RoE to justify a higher valuation While the shares of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) in Europe bounced today on the news that a buyer has been found for parts of the failed US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, their price... 27th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The fifth successive monthly increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in March suggests that Germany is still benefitting from falling energy prices and easing supply problems but has yet to... 27th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surging credit card spending not a cause for concern The surge in credit card spending over the past year hasn’t been any larger than the increase in overall consumer spending. And with personal credit accounting for a small share of overall credit, a... 27th March 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Are small banks and CRE the next doom loop? Fears over small regional banks in the US have focused on the unrealised losses on debt securities and deposit insurance but, in what would have echoes of the savings and loan crisis, maybe we should... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest DMs avoided recession in Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that not only did advanced economies avoid recession in Q1, but the outlook for activity has improved as well. However, we still think the hit from higher interest... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The two-sided risks to our rate forecasts Our view is that Bank Rate will rise from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50% and stay there for all of this year before being cut to around 3.00% by the end of next year. But the two-sided risks to our... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the banking turmoil & the dollar The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m fall in durable goods orders in February indicates that business equipment investment was weak even before the banking turmoil arose. With business confidence likely to have taken a hit... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What do bank troubles mean for UK mortgage lending? Bank failures have had only a modest impact on UK banks’ wholesale funding costs to date, reflecting an assessment that lenders are in good health which we think seems fair. Greater investor scrutiny... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in March. But with the full drag from high interest rates yet to be felt, our hunch is still that the economy will enter a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The further rebound in retail sales volumes in February suggests the recent resilience in activity hasn’t yet faded. But we doubt this will last as the drag on activity from higher interest rates... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read