UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The headline CIPS construction index fell below 50 in December, indicating a contraction in activity, as the recession hit demand and developers’ concerns about capital values increased. With both... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing slumping, but tourism set to rebound Industrial production probably recorded the largest fall since the slump at the start of the pandemic last quarter. Q4 GDP will nonetheless rebound, helped by a strong recovery in services activity... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) The further large fall in house prices recorded by Halifax in December suggests that the house price correction is further advanced than we previously thought. Indeed, while the Nationwide figures... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China reopening, price pressures moderating The dismantling of China’s Zero-Covid regime will encourage more Chinese tourists and students to come to Australia and New Zealand. That could eventually boost Australia’s GDP by nearly 1%-pt, though... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Nov. 22) The sharp slowdown in wage growth in November was mostly due to a plunge in volatile bonus payments and wage growth will rebound over the coming months. 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack At the back of the pack The 0.3% q/q contraction in Q3 left real GDP 0.8% below its Q4 2019 pre-virus level and the UK economy lagging even further behind its major counterparts. In contrast, GDP has risen above its pre... 5th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may fall as the Fed changes its tune Despite the FOMC suggesting otherwise, we expect the Fed to be cutting rates by the end of 2023, as the nascent trend of disinflation continues. This informs our forecast that the 10-year Treasury... 5th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Shelter inflation set to fall sharply this year Strong rental growth and higher mortgage costs will keep shelter inflation elevated for the next few months, but we expect it to fall sharply over the rest of 2023 as lower house prices feed through... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Dec.) Our composite models continue to suggest that a recession this year is a near-certainty, with the implied odds of the economy being in recession in six months’ time and in one year’s time both above... 5th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit to $61.5bn in November, from $77.8bn, came as a big fall in exports was offset by an even sharper drop in imports. Net trade still looks to have been a small... 5th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Lower commodity prices have now wiped out the goods trade surplus, while the falls in export and import volumes present downside risks to the preliminary estimate that GDP edged up in November. Drop... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
