Canada Economics Focus Is 2% core inflation feasible this year? Underlying inflation pressures are still well above the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range, but there are several reasons to expect disinflationary forces to build. We forecast that CPI... 5th April 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resilient, but recession still likely Recent data suggest the economy’s resilient end to 2022 was sustained at the start of this year. But while the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, we still think around two... 5th April 2023 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) A sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields in the middle of March led to a drop in mortgage rates, restoking demand for mortgage applications as a result. We expect this will help offset a tightening... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both exports and imports in February add to the signs that economic growth is faltering. Although strong gains in January mean that both are still likely to have risen over the... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office capital values can’t deny gravity forever London office capital values fell by a relatively modest amount in the second half of last year and monthly data show values stabilised in the first two months of 2023. But that has left London office... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly External demand weakness has further to run Firms expect the recent weakness in external demand to last another quarter at least, according to the BoJ’s latest Tankan survey. That should drag on business investment as well and cause the economy... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will send New Zealand into recession The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 50bp, to 5.25%, came as an upside surprise, but we still think the end of the hiking cycle is approaching. In any case... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show labour market normalising The sharp fall in job openings in February shows that labour demand was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil and provides another reason to think that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor Narrow money growth has turned negative as savers have shifted out of bank deposits and into money market funds and bonds, which now offer significantly higher returns. Bank loan growth remains robust... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will deliver one final rate hike in May The Reserve Bank of Australia kept open the possibility of further tightening when it decided to leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.60% today. As such, we do still expect the RBA to deliver one final... 4th April 2023 · 5 mins read
