FX Markets Focus What to make of the sterling quagmire While the UK government’s apparent U-turn on fiscal policy offers some hope of relief for sterling, we think the outlook remains precarious. We continue to expect that sterling will lose further... 20th October 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economic Outlook High inflation and interest rates to hit economy hard The drag on the economy from CPI inflation being stuck at 10% for a year and interest rates rising to 5.00% will be enough to trigger a recession that involves real GDP declining by around 2.0% from... 20th October 2022 · 27 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Case for policy tightening won’t become compelling The Bank of Japan will revise up its near-term inflation forecasts in next week’s Outlook report. But by predicting that inflation will fall below target again over the next couple of years, it will... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 22) 20th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think credit spreads may widen further as growth falters Although corporate credit spreads have risen quite a lot this year, we think they will increase further as economic growth in several major economies disappoints expectations. 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) September’s decline in starts supports our view that last month’s increase was a one-off and starts will fall further in the coming months. We expect the rise in mortgage rates to near 7% to continue... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The Bank’s core CPI inflation measures were unchanged in September but, as we expected a decline due to more favourable base effects, that increases the odds of another 75bp interest rate hike next... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The surge in housing starts to a 10-month high in September casts doubt on our view that there is much worse still to come for residential investment, especially as the recent stabilisation of the... 18th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think valuation will prove a tailwind for the yen before long The yen’s latest weakness has pushed its valuation well below our estimates of “fair value”, which suggests to us it is likely to strengthen substantially over the medium term. We are resending this... 18th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) The much stronger than expected rise in consumer prices in Q3 will encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates by another 50bp at its November meeting and poses upside risks to our view... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices begin to fall A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update What still-hot inflation means for US Treasuries Despite the hot September US CPI print from yesterday, we still expect Treasury yields to drop back over time. And we think the drop will mostly be driven by falls in the real yield, rather than... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) The Q3 credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the impact of the market turmoil of recent weeks, with the deadline for responses falling a week before the “mini-budget”. Nonetheless, it shows rising... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read