US Economics Update JOLTS show labour market conditions still tight The latest JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions remain quite tight and a lot more adjustment is needed to ensure that the drop back in price inflation to 2% will be sustained. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year low of 48.4 in December, from 49.0, is another sign that the economy lost more momentum at the tail-end of last year. Nearly all the... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) A second consecutive increase in home purchase applications in December suggests that declining mortgage rates have allowed buyer demand to bottom out. Indeed, as we expect mortgage rates to continue... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Exit Kuroda, exit YCC? The nomination of a less dovish candidate to succeed BoJ Governor Kuroda would probably signal that Yield Curve Control will soon be abandoned, though we would still expect the Bank to keep its short... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Net lending to property accelerated in November to an 11-month high. But given the worsening economic and property outlook we expect it will soon go into reverse. Indeed, investment activity is now... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Nov.) November’s money and credit figures showed further signs that higher interest rates are dampening activity, particularly in the housing market. This will be a constant theme over the year ahead... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The impact of the surge in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget on 23rd September was realised in November as mortgage approvals collapsed. The modest drop back in fixed mortgage rates since... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may set the tone for early 2023 After struggling in the last quarter of 2022, the US dollar has started the new year with a bang. We think the greenback’s rebound has further to run over the coming months. 3rd January 2023 · 6 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Central London leads housing market slowdown London house prices are likely to continue to underperform even if the shift in buyer demand away from the capital due to remote working ends. More stretched house prices in the capital prior to the... 3rd January 2023 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing more markedly We estimate that employment growth slowed more sharply in December, with non-farm payrolls rising by 160,000. The unemployment rate probably edged up to an 11-month high of 3.8%. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) The sharp fall in German inflation in December was due to one-off energy subsidies so it will probably reverse in January. Headline inflation is still likely to decline rapidly in March, but we think... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) Australia’s house prices have never fallen so fast in such a short period of time and the risks to our forecast of a 15% peak-to-trough fall are shifting to the downside. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
