UK Housing Market Outlook Activity to slump as prices adjust to higher rates 2023 will be the most difficult year for the housing market since 2008. Mortgage rates remain very high by the standards of recent years and can’t drop materially until the Bank of England shifts from... 26th January 2023 · 25 mins read
Global Markets Focus The implications of waning appetite for US Treasuries We forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to decline between now and the end of the year, as inflation eases further and the Fed transitions to monetary loosening. A key risk to this projection, in our... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
BoE Watch Bank not yet willing to call the peak Another 50 basis points (bps) rise in interest rates, from 3.50% to 4.00%, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 2 nd February wouldn’t surprise the markets. But our view that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The slowing economy led to a further fall in occupier demand in Q4, with retail seeing the largest contraction. So far, the fall in rental expectations has been relatively modest and surveyors expect... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2022) The 4.45% hit to all-property capital values in Q4 was more substantial than our end-2022 forecasts implied, although recent news of bigger valuation markdowns in December made this less of a surprise... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Disappointing earnings may weigh further on the US stock market Today’s pullback in the US stock market fits with our view that it remains vulnerable in the coming months to a downgrading of expectations for corporate profits ahead of a mild recession. 25th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints that smaller 25 bp hike likely to be the last The Bank of Canada accompanied its smaller 25 bp hike with new guidance that it intends to hold the policy rate at the current 4.5% while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January confirms that the recovery in German business sentiment that started at the end of 2022 has continued this year. But the fall in its... 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (January) 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2023 1675353600 As 2023’s calendar of central bank meetings began, we held a special briefing on the first Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England policy decisions of the year.
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The renewed fall in the flash UK composite PMI in January suggests that some of the resilience in economic activity towards the back end of 2022 petered out in early 2023. That supports our view that... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s worse-than-expected public finances figures suggest the Chancellor will wait until closer to the next election before announcing any significant tax cuts and/or spending rises. 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
