UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Rocketing mortgage rates led to a sharp drop in mortgage approvals in October. While quoted mortgage rates have peaked they are unlikely to fall much below 5% next year, keeping the cost of buying... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Retail Sales (Oct. 22) The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in August and will hover around 2.5% through 2023 due to a looming economic recession. Meanwhile, retail sales values barely grew in October from September and... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Recession to hit rental growth as yields rise The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with... 28th November 2022 · 28 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Nov.) Despite the recent resilience of the hard economic data, the most reliable forward-looking indicators suggest that a recession is unavoidable – our six-month ahead composite model puts the odds at... 28th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2022) Following a strong eight consecutive rises since the start of the year, the decline in retail sales in October isn’t a disaster. A fall in sales volumes across Q4 now looks very likely but we suspect... 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 22) 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US equities, bonds and earnings recessions We doubt the recent outperformance of equities vis-à-vis government bonds in the US will persist over the next three to six months, given our view that the economy there is heading for a mild... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trigger warning Research from the Bank of Canada suggests that half of all variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgage holders have now hit their so-called trigger rates, which means their payments will rise. This is one... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Discretionary spending cuts hurting service sector While the rebound in inbound tourism is positive for the accommodation and transport sectors, the wider services sector is struggling because households are having to cut back on discretionary... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly High migration, but low labour force The most striking thing about the record rise in net migration in the year to June 2022 is that it has not prevented the decline in the labour force. Without the rise in net migration, the labour... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE losses add pressure on the public finances The Treasury has started to make payments to the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to cover the losses it has racked up because of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases. While this won’t... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Nov. 2022) Headline inflation in the capital set a new three-decade high in November on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and industrial goods inflation. The upshot is that nationwide... 25th November 2022 · 2 mins read