US Commercial Property Update Pipelines will weigh on Austin, NYC and Seattle offices We expect a further slowing in office completions over the next few years as a combination of factors weigh on the profitability of new projects. But our latest review of the metro-level completion... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly The opposite of stagflation The strength of the early January data appears to rule out the possibility of an imminent recession, but that won’t prevent inflation from continuing to fall sharply from here. 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals There were more mixed signals this week on how the economy is coping with higher interest rates. The GDP data suggest fourth-quarter growth was stronger than initially expected and the manufacturing... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The robust 517,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January means that, despite most leading indicators of recession flashing red, the economy is clearly not as close to recession as we had suspected... 3rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data needs to beat BoE’s forecasts for further rate hikes This week the Bank of England implied that Bank Rate is at or very close to its peak, and for further rate hikes to happen there needs to be evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures than it... 3rd February 2023 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We have our doubts about the soft-landing rally Despite some better news recently, we still think that advanced economies face a tough couple of quarters, an outturn which does not seem to be fully discounted in financial markets. With this in mind... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Explaining the surge in yields The rise in yields in the final quarter of last year was larger than that seen at the start of the GFC. While the magnitude of the rise can be explained by the jump in risk-free interest rates, the... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Electricity rate hike to dilute government subsidies Seven of Japan's ten regional utility companies have applied to the government to raise electricity prices for households. If approved, headline inflation would still drop below the Bank of Japan’s 2%... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What the latest central bank meetings mean for markets Despite investors’ dovish interpretations of recent major central bank meetings, we don’t think monetary policy will give markets too much more of a boost. 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates close to their peak, but cuts are far away While raising rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, from 3.50% to 4.00%, the Bank of England implied that rates are very close to their peak. We still think that rates may rise to 4.50%, but perhaps... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (2nd Feb.) 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still looking for a “couple” more hikes As expected following a blitz of speeches by officials ahead of the blackout window, the Fed raised its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to between 4.50% and 4.75%, but tempered any hopes of a major... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
