Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) After a strong start to the year, retail sales volumes dropped back in February and the preliminary estimate implies they fell again in March. While consumption probably still rose at a healthy pace... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the global growth backdrop stills favours the US dollar While stronger-than-expected data out of Europe and China have weighed on the dollar over the past two quarters, our view is that the current global backdrop points to a rebound in the greenback... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona versus Krone, Switzerland outperforming We expect the Norwegian krone and the Swedish Krone to appreciate against the euro this year. The krone looks significantly undervalued to us, whereas the krona is likely to benefit from the Riksbank... 21st April 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation a persistent problem for the Bank of England Lingering underlying price pressures and the continued resilience of economic activity has left us more comfortable than we were at the start of this week with our view that the Bank of England will... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Growth stock valuations still look unsustainably high We would not be surprised if US “growth” stocks outperformed their “value” peers by a bit more in the near term. But we still suspect that growth will underperform value substantially over the longer... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong start to Q2, 50bp May hike still on the cards The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy started Q2 on a strong footing. With underlying price pressures also still strong, we think a 50bp hike at the ECB meeting in May remains the most... 21st April 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s flash PMIs suggest the economy is still proving resilient to the dual drags of high inflation and high interest rates going into Q2. That, alongside evidence suggesting that domestic... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Ueda will ditch Yield Curve Control at his first meeting Governor Kazuo Ueda faces a difficult choice as inflation has risen faster than the Bank had anticipated but economic activity is much weaker than the Bank had thought. While the risks are tilted... 21st April 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Underlying retail sales volumes aren’t as soggy as the 0.9% m/m drop in March suggests as some of that fall was due to the unusually wet weather. The further rebound in consumer confidence in April... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly We still expect Ueda to spring a surprise next week Press reports suggest that the Bank of Japan will predict inflation of 2% two years ahead at next week's meeting, which would suggest that the Bank is closer than ever to meeting its inflation target... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More trouble brewing down under Things will get worse before they get better for the Antipodean economies. House prices in New Zealand have plummeted by 18% from their January 2022 peak. And with affordability extremely stretched... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s flash PMIs point to further upside risks to our GDP forecasts, indicating a broad improvement in both domestic and external demand. That suggests the exports downturn may be short-lived... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2023) Underlying inflation saw a sizeable increase in March, while headline inflation inched down thanks to falling energy prices. A stronger yen and falling import price inflation should still see... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
