Asset Allocation Update Four key points to consider this US earnings season This Update makes four key points about corporate earnings in the US as the Q4 results season gets into swing. They all feed into our view that the S&P 500 will remain under pressure until the spring... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The end of Yield Curve Control could boost the yen further An end to Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy looks increasingly likely, in our view, which could push the yen even higher. 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly A pivotal week for policy outlook The December CPI data and the Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys, released next week, could have a big bearing on the policy outlook. For the Bank to pause after one final 25 bp... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s re-opening and currency markets While the medium-term outlook for the renminbi and other Asian currencies has improved, and we have revised some of our forecasts accordingly, we continue to anticipate that a deterioration in risk... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflation moderates as labour tightness fades The 0.1% m/m decline in headline CPI in December was principally due to a 9.4% m/m drop in gasoline prices, but core consumer prices also increased by a more modest 0.3% m/m, extending the run of... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession delayed not cancelled It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will. Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than... 13th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Nov.) The small 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in November (consensus -0.2% m/m, CE -0.3% m/m) suggests the economy did not contract in Q4 and is not in recession. Even so, it is too soon to conclude the economy... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) Yet another larger-than-expected increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation and in the core rate suggest that policymakers are highly likely to raise rates by 50bp in February. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do With inflation remaining stubbornly high and consumption resilient, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to hike interest rates for a while yet. However, there are some early signs that the... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of a trough in housing demand There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise... 12th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may only have a bit further to fall The latest evidence of disinflation in the US was met with a muted reaction in US government bond markets. This probably reflects that investors’ expectations for inflation, and interest rates, have... 12th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Core CPI inflation was still an elevated 5.7% in December but, with another more muted 0.3% m/m gain, the three-month annualised rate fell to a 20-month low of 3.1%. Admittedly, the latter is still... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
