An upward revision to our 10-year Treasury yield forecast and a widening in spreads have led us to upgrade our mortgage rate forecasts. We now expect the 30-year fixed rate will stay close to 6.5% for the remainder of the year before falling to 5% by end-2024. That means the risks to our house price forecast of a 5% peak-to-trough fall now lie firmly to the downside.
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