The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will present her fiscal update on 26th March against the challenging backdrop of geopolitical ruptures, tariffs threats and a stagnating domestic economy. We expect Reeves to tighten fiscal policy by a further £10bn (0.3% of GDP). However, as the UK government will remain under pressure to further increase spending on defence, fiscal policy may ultimately end up looser, which creates some upside for GDP, interest rates and gilt yields in the years ahead.
We will be discussing what to expect in the Spring Forecast in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 12th March (register here) and what happened at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 26th March (register here).
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