We think the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8th June. And while the door will be kept ajar for a resumption in the hiking cycle over the coming months, we don’t think this will materialise. In fact, with inflation set to remain comfortably within the RBI’s 2-6% target range, the central bank could lay the groundwork for cuts before the end of the year and start delivering them in early 2024, a view that the consensus has come around to.
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