We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 5th April. Further ahead, we think the central bank will start cutting rates in Q3 once headline inflation reaches the RBI’s 4% long-term target and the economy cools a touch. And given the RBI’s penchant of moving quickly following a policy pivot, we expect slightly more rates cuts by the end of the year than the consensus is forecasting.
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