Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Focus Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating? India’s stock market has had such a good few years that it started to raise concerns about whether it was in a “bubble”. And as it’s come under pressure recently, some have speculated that the bubble... 26th November 2024 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Global Markets Focus The US election and market implications for EMs We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president... 1st November 2024 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes? Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive... 25th October 2024 · 17 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Rate cuts and asset returns This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury... 12th September 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Focus Can US credit spreads really stay this low? US corporate credit spreads have all but unwound the rise they saw during the recent market turbulence, and are back at very low levels by past standards. We expect them to remain compressed over the... 22nd August 2024 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Focus Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent... 9th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Focus The US election and financial markets three months out Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump... 1st August 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Will rising JGB yields cause capital repatriation? In view of the wider interest, we are resending this publication to include clients of our Global Markets Service. We apologise to readers of our Japan Economics Service who are receiving it twice... 1st July 2024 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Shrinking BoJ balance sheet won’t have big impact While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up... 26th March 2024 · 12 mins read
