Immigration has probably added around 0.6%-pts to GDP growth per year on average across advanced economies since the pandemic. But tighter restrictions on immigration will weigh heavily on GDP growth in the US and Canada over the next few years. And the potential for similar policy shifts in other DMs pose a risk to their outlooks, most notably in Australia, the UK and Germany. Meanwhile, the hit to labour supply may add a few tenths of a percentage point to inflation, and weigh on public finances slightly.
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