Global Economics Focus Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere? Punitive tariffs have the potential to cause a substantial fall in US imports from China – a 60% tariff, for example, could cut imports from China by about a third over the next two years, with... 15th April 2025 · 20 mins read
FX Markets Focus Trump pushes the dollar through the looking glass; what next? The ongoing fallout across financial markets from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement has resulted in a sharp fall in the dollar and what looks increasingly like a generalised loss of... 15th April 2025 · 19 mins read
China Economics Focus Is China offloading its dollar assets? Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market. But China’s state managers of foreign assets still... 14th April 2025 · 10 mins read
Event Drop-In: Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix the global trading system? 1743087600 There’s no shortage of proposals for fixing global trade imbalances – not least a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ suggested by the new head of Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth? The rise in defence spending that looks likely in many countries over the next few years will boost demand and output, albeit by less than the headline-grabbing figures might suggest. Meanwhile... 13th March 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Focus What does the future hold for Bitcoin? With institutional interest in Bitcoin still growing, rising demand might drive prices significantly higher. But we still doubt that Bitcoin will take over from established fiat currencies or usurp... 27th February 2025 · 27 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings 1742482800 Our senior economists hosted a wrap-up of the latest policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, to answer questions from the audience about how the strate
Event Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging 1739372400 Our latest Global Inflation Watch publication highlights a growing divergence between US and European inflation dynamics and the uncertainties facing the world e
Global Economics Focus Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger... 24th January 2025 · 16 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods China’s surging exports have been gaining international attention, but concerns about overcapacity have focussed on “strategic sectors”. Far less acknowledged is the fact that China has been gaining... 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Immigration curbs a key downside risk to DM growth Immigration has probably added around 0.6%-pts to GDP growth per year on average across advanced economies since the pandemic. But tighter restrictions on immigration will weigh heavily on GDP growth... 16th December 2024 · 29 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
