Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In this vein, we have created Economic Momentum Indicators that summarise an internationally consistent set of 12 variables and detected 90% of recessions in advanced economies between 1980 and 2019. Going by past experience, no major DM appears to have entered recession heading into Q3, but the risks are highest in North America.
To track the evolution of recession risk in DMs, CE Advance clients have access to our associated dashboard which we will update on a weekly basis.
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