We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform Europe. Despite the upside surprise in the latest US CPI report, we believe that inflation in the US and other DMs will return to central bank targets this year. Accordingly, DM central banks will join a growing number of EM central banks in cutting rates this year. In China, rate cuts will do little to boost activity. After the ongoing fiscal stimulus fades, strong structural headwinds should cause growth to weaken once more.
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