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Macron on course to defeat far-right challengers

The confirmation earlier today that far-right pundit Eric Zemmour will stand in France’s presidential election next spring comes as no surprise given his rise in the polls. But French President Emmanuel Macron still looks on course to win a second term, defeating the far-right candidates and keeping France on a pro-European, reformist track. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the election.
Jessica Hinds Europe Economist
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European Economics Update

Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry

The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could subtract 0.2ppts from GDP in Q3 and Q4 and add a touch to inflation.

10 August 2022

European Economics Focus

How big is the threat of an end to Russian gas exports?

An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation, which would further squeeze real incomes, and partly through gas rationing, which would particularly affect industry. As an illustrative scenario we think the combined effect would reduce annual GDP by around 2% in the euro-zone next year relative to our current forecast.

9 August 2022

European Economics Weekly

Heading for recession, ECB using PEPP flexibility

The activity data published this week add to the evidence that the economy is heading for recession. Meanwhile, the ECB published data showing the degree of flexibility that it has applied to its PEPP reinvestments - while this has been enough to contain bond spreads so far, we think there is a good chance that the Bank’s new spread-fighting tool will eventually have to be used.

5 August 2022

More from Jessica Hinds

European Economics Update

Q4 outlook darkens as tighter restrictions loom

Germany’s worsening Covid situation means much of the country could be subject to much tighter restrictions soon, potentially knocking around 0.25%-pts off euro-zone Q4 GDP. Even if other countries impose less draconian rules, consumer caution might mean the euro-zone as a whole stagnates in Q4.

23 November 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.)

The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November suggests that the region’s recovery has not lost further momentum. But with supply shortages still acute, Covid restrictions being tightened and price pressures intensifying, renewed falls in the index seem likely.

23 November 2021

European Economics Weekly

Austria lockdown casts shadow over rest of euro-zone

The “full lockdown” in Austria announced earlier today is a response to the rapid deterioration in the Covid situation there and we estimate that it could knock around 1.5% off the country’s GDP in Q4. While on its own this would not make a big difference to euro-zone GDP, there is a clear risk that other larger economies, notably Germany, are forced to follow suit. Our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast may well prove too optimistic and stagnation, or even contraction, are plausible.

19 November 2021
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