Europe Economics Update ECB leaning towards further rate cuts The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.5% to 2.25% today was expected. And the monetary policy statement sent a clear signal that the Bank will cut rates further to counter the impact of... 17th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone disinflation remains on track March’s decline in services inflation was entirely due to transport, which in turn reflected past moves in oil prices and Easter timing effects. But the fundamentals still point to continued declines... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update European Union reluctant to retaliate Although the EU is likely to respond to US tariffs at some point, recent developments reinforce our view that it will move slowly and that any retaliation will be moderate. This should limit the... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ bank lending in decent shape before US tariff shock The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey paints a positive picture of the housing market. Conditions for consumer credit and corporate loans were less encouraging, and the tariff chaos of the past two weeks... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German politics: good intentions but challenges ahead This week’s coalition agreement sets the stage for a substantial fiscal stimulus which should eventually get Germany’s economy growing again. But the new government will have to deal with new... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Trade war will be disinflationary for the euro-zone Despite the 90-day pause to the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, ECB policymakers will still need to assess the impact of higher US tariffs for euro-zone inflation. Some have argued that tariffs could... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of 20% US tariffs on the euro-zone If the 20% US tariff on the EU is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by more than the 0.1-0.2% of GDP we had previously assumed. The impact on inflation should be... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone money and lending growth continues to rise Data released this morning showed that euro-zone money and lending growth continued to accelerate in February, supporting the case of those at the ECB who would prefer to pause interest rate cuts in... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to cut very cautiously, if at all This morning’s decision by Norges Bank not to follow through with the rate cut that it signalled in January was no surprise. The Bank also revised its interest rate projection up. We forecast two... 27th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s next move will be to hike rates The Riksbank left both its policy rate and its interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. And while policymakers... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB at the end of the cycle In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
