Europe Commercial Property Update French residential property returns to lag the pack Softer rental prospects, less scope for yields to fall and lower income returns look set to weigh on French residential property returns compared to Germany, the UK and the US in the coming years. 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut deposit rate to just 1.5% In light of the worsening outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro-zone, we are making major downward revisions to our ECB interest rate forecast. We now think the Bank will implement... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending growth picking up only gradually New bank lending has risen recently as the interest rates on loans have begun to edge down, but it is still weak. While it will probably continue to increase gradually in the coming months, the ECB... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of a Trump victory on Europe A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and... 22nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deflation risk to hang over the SNB We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB history shows 50bp rate cut is possible Before the global financial crisis, 50bp interest rate cuts by the ECB were more common than 25bp reductions. Circumstances today are different, but if ECB policymakers are convinced that they need to... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update 25bp rate cuts by ECB most likely, but 50bp possible Christine Lagarde’s message in today’s ECB press conference was distinctly dovish and supports our view that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp at each of the next few meetings, at the very least... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Some good news on underlying inflation The detailed breakdown of September’s inflation data, published this morning, showed that underlying price pressures softened slightly. We think that core inflation – and services inflation in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on France's 2025 budget We are nudging down our forecast for economic growth in France next year from 1.0% to 0.7% because of the government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy. That said, we think the deficit will come down... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to patchy recovery The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey suggests that demand for credit is recovering, but the rebound in housing loans is much stronger than in consumer or enterprise loans. 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consumption to drive Sweden’s recovery Sweden’s economy is likely to see a strong rebound next year as consumption will benefit from fiscal stimulus and lower household interest expenditure. We think that the recovery will encourage the... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 25bp at next four meetings We now expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp at each of its next four meetings, taking the deposit rate down from 3.5% currently to 2.5% in March. 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s fiscal problem – from bad to worse France’s new government suggested yesterday that the budget deficit will be over 6% of GDP this year, rather than the 5.6% as indicated only a couple of weeks ago. We expect the government to struggle... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
