Europe Commercial Property Update French industrial rent prospects slip down the rankings Slowing economic growth and rising availability will hold back French industrial rental growth this year, with affordability concerns likely to be an additional drag in Paris. This will leave the... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to euro-zone stock markets to blow harder While equities in Germany have managed to ride out weak growth and political uncertainty this year, those in France have not. We suspect that they will all fare poorly next year, as those adverse... 16th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a retail renaissance in Paris? Paris retail rents surged in Q3 raising hopes for a sustained revival. But this jump probably reflects a temporary boost from the Olympics and momentum is expected to fade next year. Despite this, we... 4th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is France the new Greece? France is unlikely to have a government with a mandate to tighten fiscal policy anytime soon, so the risks to its bond market will continue to grow. Its debt dynamics are not as bad as those of Greece... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 1733238000 The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance 1731423600 Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver?
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q3 2024) Third quarter GDP data reported so far suggest that the aggregate euro-zone growth rate will be a little higher than we had forecast in Q3, but the big picture is that, the Olympics and Spain aside... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update French residential property returns to lag the pack Softer rental prospects, less scope for yields to fall and lower income returns look set to weigh on French residential property returns compared to Germany, the UK and the US in the coming years. 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
