European Commercial Property

Wider market confirms recovery in prime data

The latest MSCI data show that the wider market has moved roughly in line with our prime data since the onset of the pandemic and provide support to our outlook for property values.
Yasemin Engin Property Economist
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European Commercial Property Update

Risk of stronger French industrial rental growth ahead

We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become more acute, there is a risk that rents climb higher than we currently anticipate.

25 October 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Warsaw retail rents to recover but not surge

After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending and keep a lid on rental growth.

21 October 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Near-term upgrades to German office rental growth

Prime office rental growth in Germany is on track to be stronger than forecast in the near term. However, we think rental growth will slow in the coming years as the supply of modern space is expected to continue to outpace demand, even accounting for a shift in occupier preferences towards prime space.

20 October 2021

More from Yasemin Engin

European Commercial Property Update

CEE investment recovery to pick up from 2022

We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower than their already weak 2020 levels, before catching up with the euro-zone recovery next year.

8 October 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Bucharest industrial rental growth to underwhelm

The positive near-term economic picture means that Bucharest industrial activity will maintain its momentum in H2, but ease further out as spending patterns normalise. But given the city’s large supply pipeline, we expect industrial rents to barely grow over 2022-25.

27 September 2021

Non-Euro European Commercial Property Outlook

Emerging Europe: Industrial loses crown after 2021

Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office and retail rents to end this year lower. Beyond 2021, while we expect rents to return to growth across all sectors, large supply pipelines and structural changes will keep a lid on rental growth. And with bond yields trending higher on the back of monetary policy normalisation, we expect broad-based property yield rises from 2023 across all sectors. We therefore think capital values will barely grow over the next five years. As a result, total returns will be driven by income returns, with retail overtaking industrial as the strongest sector after this year.

24 September 2021
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