Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Costa resignation won’t reverse Portugal debt progress The end of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa’s time in office does not signify the end of Portugal’s impressive period of debt reduction. We think any future government is likely to exercise... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Debt burdens will constrain fiscal policy for years The goal of keeping government debt ratios stable or falling means that many euro-zone countries will need to tighten fiscal policy substantially and some will need to run primary budget surpluses for... 19th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal health and the outlook for the euro-zone’s bond markets We continue to forecast a small fall in euro-zone yield spreads over Bunds in the next year or so. However, rising risks to the upside in recent months and differences in fiscal positions between... 22nd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revolving doors on the Iberian peninsula The resignation of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa and news of a coalition government being formed behind incumbent Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez this week could shift the two economies’ relative... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of diverging euro-zone spreads Yields in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain have diverged in unusual directions this year, and we doubt that these trends will revert any time soon. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tourist boost to Iberian retail rents has run its course A strong rebound in tourism has bolstered retail rents in Spain and Portugal over recent quarters. However, we think this boom has run its course. Alongside a weak domestic consumer outlook, this... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
