There are only a few days to go until the next packages of EU sanctions on Russia targeting its oil trade come into force. There are a few key details still left to be finalised, but it seems to us that disruption to Russia’s oil trade and production is inevitable. We think Russia’s oil output will fall steadily to 9.6mn bpd by the end of next year, from an estimated 10.3mn bpd in the final quarter of this year.
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