The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. To us, that suggests that the economic hit from recent unrest could be bigger and more persistent in Kenya than in Bangladesh. Elsewhere, Thailand’s recent political disruption risks another flare-up of protests that could further the shift towards economic populism and weaken longer-term growth prospects.
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