The domestic headwinds that have caused China’s economy to slow over the past year are abating thanks to the policy support that has put a floor under credit growth and fuelled local government spending. But policymakers are still concerned about credit risks and are acting with far more restraint than in any recent easing cycle. That will limit the scale of any economic rebound. The trade war is a growing downside risk. And the structural slowdown in China’s trend growth is continuing.
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