5.0% likely to be the peak

The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators implying that inflation expectations are normalising, we expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut – albeit not until 2024.

Canada Drop-In (12th July): We’re holding a post-BoC July meeting briefing at 10:00 EDT/17:00 BST on Wednesday, 12th July. Click here to register to join.

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