Australia & New Zealand
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Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much

Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect migration to ease labour shortages in New Zealand much next year. Nonetheless, New Zealand’s labour market is already very tight and with the RBNZ set to keep tightening monetary policy, we expect unemployment to creep higher over the next couple of years.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Omicron could add to inflationary pressure

If Omicron were able to evade existing vaccines, a renewed period of lockdowns would be required which would force the RBA to step up its bond purchases. Inflation would fall initially as crude oil prices would continue to weaken, but disruptions to transportation networks coupled with continued strength in goods demand would add to the upward pressure on goods prices. However, for now the activity data suggest that the economy is roaring to life after the recent lockdowns and we’re sticking to our above-consensus GDP forecast of 5% for next year.

3 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021)

While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns.

2 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year.

1 December 2021

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21)

Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters.

25 November 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2021)

November’s flash PMI points to a rebound in industrial output amidst early signs that supply shortages are diminishing. But while the services sector is now on the mend, the recovery there is lacking vigour.

24 November 2021
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