Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Net migration to slow further, supporting disinflation We learned this week that Australia's population growth continued to slow in Q3 2024, as net migration flows eased significantly. We believe that concerns about a potential resurgence in international... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Ignore Chalmers’ predictions of spending restraint If the Coalition wins the federal election due by May, the fiscal stance that Treasurer Jim Chalmers will unveil in the Budget on 25 th March may end up being supplanted by a more restrictive one... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Australian consumer in a soft patch, RBNZ’s Orr exits Australian national accounts data showed that private consumption growth edged up only modestly in Q4. What's more, timely data suggest that it could actually soften again this quarter. However... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The risks from New Zealand’s large external deficit New Zealand’s current account deficit will remain large as domestic demand rebounds and the government is running a sizeable structural budget deficit. While the New Zealand dollar has recently been... 3rd March 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t drop its guard just yet At first glance, data released this week should give the RBA greater confidence that it has brought price pressures under control. Both headline and underlying inflation remained within the Bank's 2-3... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further than most expect Having handed down a third consecutive 50bp rate cut at its meeting today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to slow the pace of easing going forward. That said, we still think there’s a... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: NZ mulls tax cuts, Australia could gain from trade war Speculation has been growing that the New Zealand government will slash the corporate income tax rate in the upcoming May budget. Given that New Zealand’s corporate tax rate is higher than in most... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ Watch: RBNZ has several more cuts in the pipeline The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates by 50bp, to 3.75%, at its meeting on 19th February. Although the Bank is likely to revert to 25bp cuts thereafter, we think it has much... 12th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will look past strong household spending data Provisional household spending data published this week suggest that private consumption may have picked up more strongly in Q4 than the Reserve Bank of Australia had anticipated. However, given the... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2024) 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will start cutting rates in February With Australia's underlying inflation surprising materially to the downside in Q4, we've brought forward our forecast for the RBA's first rate cut from May to February. The data clearly show that... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
