Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still on track to cut rates to 2.25% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.25%, at its meeting next week. With inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the... 20th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of... 19th November 2024 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2 We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2024) The modest rise in the unemployment rate last quarter belies the precarity of the jobs market. We still believe the unemployment rate will eventually rise to a peak of 5.6% by end-2025. The dismal... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts 1730253600 Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2024) The weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI data reinforce our conviction that the RBNZ will loosen policy more aggressively than most are expecting. 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Central banks will shrug off oil price risks With the price of crude oil continuing to climb higher, we could soon see a resurgence in fuel inflation in both Australia and New Zealand. However, if we’re right that any pickup in oil prices will... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the... 4th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to start easing policy from next February Although the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting this week, it did soften its hawkish bias a touch. And with the latest CPI data pointing to a noticeable slowdown in underlying inflation... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
