Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts 1730253600 Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2024) The weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI data reinforce our conviction that the RBNZ will loosen policy more aggressively than most are expecting. 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Central banks will shrug off oil price risks With the price of crude oil continuing to climb higher, we could soon see a resurgence in fuel inflation in both Australia and New Zealand. However, if we’re right that any pickup in oil prices will... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the... 4th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to start easing policy from next February Although the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting this week, it did soften its hawkish bias a touch. And with the latest CPI data pointing to a noticeable slowdown in underlying inflation... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market will delay interest rate relief The August labour force release provided little justification for the RBA to renege on its pledge to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the year. Not only is employment growth on... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Struggling dollar may be due a break The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read